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Sao-Carlense vs AEA Aracatuba

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Victhor
23' Event
Gabriel Oliveira
34' Event
Lucowicz Y.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Sao-Carlense and AEA Aracatuba finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sao-Carlense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Sao-Carlense
30%
Draws
0%
AEA Aracatuba
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao-Carlense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • AEA Aracatuba have managed 0.78 goals a game lately — Sao-Carlense are scoring more at 1.13.
  • Sao-Carlense are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Sao-Carlense Clean Sheet 68%
AEA Aracatuba Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao-Carlense AEA Aracatuba
Matches Played 30 37
Wins 10 10
Draws 12 6
Losses 8 21
Goals Scored 1.13 0.78
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao-Carlense vs AEA Aracatuba
4:1
Jan 22, 2025 Paulista A4
AEA Aracatuba vs Sao-Carlense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao-Carlense Compare

Top Goalscorer Victhor
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gabriel Oliveira
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

AEA Aracatuba Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucowicz Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao-Carlense 95 / 100
AEA Aracatuba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao-Carlense AEA Aracatuba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao-Carlense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: AEA Aracatuba registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Sao-Carlense found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

AEA Aracatuba has conceded goals in 73% of their last 37 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao-Carlense VS AEA Aracatuba
1 Goals Scored 0.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 3
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao-Carlense

(Home)
01 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
26 Apr
Sao-Carlense
1 : 3
Inter de Bebedouro
19 Apr
Sao-Carlense
1 : 0
Barretos EC
10 Apr
Barretos EC
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
Page 1 of 6

AEA Aracatuba

(Away)
04 Apr
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 3
Jabaquara
28 Mar
Penapolense
6 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
25 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 4
Vocem
21 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)