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Sao-Carlense vs Barretos EC

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

88' Event
Gilvan

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Sao-Carlense advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Sao-Carlense
11%
Draws
9%
Barretos EC
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Sao-Carlense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sao-Carlense come out ahead of Barretos EC on wins alone.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Sao-Carlense taking it.
  • Sao-Carlense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Barretos EC, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Sao-Carlense Clean Sheet 68%
Barretos EC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao-Carlense Barretos EC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 12 12
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao-Carlense vs Barretos EC
1:0
Apr 10, 2026 Paulista A4
Barretos EC vs Sao-Carlense
1:1
Mar 4, 2026 Paulista A4
Sao-Carlense vs Barretos EC
0:1
Feb 12, 2025 Paulista A4
Barretos EC vs Sao-Carlense
2:2
Feb 28, 2024 Paulista A4
Sao-Carlense vs Barretos EC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao-Carlense Compare

Top Goalscorer Gilvan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Barretos EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao-Carlense 86 / 100
Barretos EC 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao-Carlense Barretos EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao-Carlense found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Barretos EC let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Sao-Carlense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao-Carlense VS Barretos EC
1 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao-Carlense

(Home)
01 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
26 Apr
Sao-Carlense
1 : 3
Inter de Bebedouro
19 Apr
Sao-Carlense
1 : 0
Barretos EC
10 Apr
Barretos EC
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
04 Apr
Lemense
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
Page 1 of 6

Barretos EC

(Away)
19 Apr
Sao-Carlense
1 : 0
Barretos EC
10 Apr
Barretos EC
1 : 1
Sao-Carlense
04 Apr
Taquaritinga
2 : 0
Barretos EC
28 Mar
Barretos EC
1 : 0
Nacional SP
25 Mar
Penapolense
1 : 1
Barretos EC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Inter de Bebedouro4
Lemense0
Sao-Carlense2
Barretos EC1
Sao Caetano1
Jacarei FC0
Penapolense3
Taquaritinga3
Semi-finals
Inter de Bebedouro4
Sao-Carlense2
Sao Caetano3
Penapolense4
Final
Inter de Bebedouro2
Penapolense3