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Sao Gabriel MS vs Comercial MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2
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AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2 game between Sao Gabriel MS and Comercial MS finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Comercial MS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sao Gabriel MS
44%
Draws
20%
Comercial MS
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Comercial MS carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Sul-Matogrossense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Comercial MS have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Sao Gabriel MS Clean Sheet 14%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Gabriel MS Comercial MS
Matches Played 14 26
Wins 2 6
Draws 3 8
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 0.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 2 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Sao Gabriel MS vs Comercial MS
1:3
Nov 1, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Sao Gabriel MS vs Comercial MS
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2
Comercial MS vs Sao Gabriel MS
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Gabriel MS 35 / 100
Comercial MS 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Gabriel MS Comercial MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ESP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Comercial MS let in goals in 88% of their last 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Sao Gabriel MS went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Sao Gabriel MS scored in 50% of their last 14 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sao Gabriel MS VS Comercial MS
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Aquidauanense43014:29
2Uniao ABC42116:27
37 de Setembro52128:67
4Comercial MS42116:47
5Misto42115:47
6Esporte Clube Taveiropolis52034:66
7Sao Gabriel MS41123:54
8EC Campo Grande40131:81