Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sao Goncalo vs Olaria

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2 2025 Estádio de Los Larios, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Anthony
41' Event
Eberson
60' Event
Di Maria

AI Match Summary

Sao Goncalo in this Carioca 2 2025 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sao Goncalo
30%
Draws
19%
Olaria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Goncalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Olaria at 1.03 per game, Sao Goncalo at 0.96.
  • Sao Goncalo are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Goncalo, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Sao Goncalo Clean Sheet 68%
Olaria Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Goncalo Olaria
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 10
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 0.96 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.79 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Carioca 2
Sao Goncalo vs Olaria
0:0
Aug 9, 2025 Carioca 2
Sao Goncalo vs Olaria
3:0
Aug 3, 2025 Carioca 2
Olaria vs Sao Goncalo
0:0
May 26, 2025 Carioca 2
Olaria vs Sao Goncalo
2:1
Nov 25, 2020 Carioca 2
Olaria vs Sao Goncalo
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Goncalo Compare

Top Goalscorer Anthony
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eberson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Olaria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Goncalo 86 / 100
Olaria 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Goncalo Olaria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Goncalo has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Olaria's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Sao Goncalo's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Goncalo VS Olaria
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Goncalo

(Home)
05 Aug
Sao Goncalo
0 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
20 Jul
Volta Redonda
0 : 0
Sao Goncalo
16 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1
Volta Redonda
04 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1
Audax RJ
27 Jun
Serrano FC
0 : 3
Sao Goncalo
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Olaria

(Away)
05 Aug
Olaria
0 : 1
Nova Iguacu
22 Jul
Bangu
1 : 1
Olaria
15 Jul
Olaria
2 : 0
Bangu
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0
Olaria
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sao Goncalo 3
Olaria 0
Bangu 1
CEAC/Araruama 0
Final
Sao Goncalo 1
Bangu 3