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Stadium Background

Sao Goncalo vs Perolas Negras

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Romero

AI Match Summary

Perolas Negras in this Carioca 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Perolas Negras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sao Goncalo
30%
Draws
33%
Perolas Negras
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Goncalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Perolas Negras average 1.2 goals a game right now, well clear of Sao Goncalo's 1.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Sao Goncalo taking it.
  • Regular Carioca 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Sao Goncalo Clean Sheet 68%
Perolas Negras Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Goncalo Perolas Negras
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 11
Draws 11 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Carioca 2
Sao Goncalo vs Perolas Negras
0:1
May 31, 2025 Carioca 2
Sao Goncalo vs Perolas Negras
2:1
Dec 7, 2024 Carioca B1
Sao Goncalo vs Perolas Negras
2:2
Dec 2, 2024 Carioca B1
Perolas Negras vs Sao Goncalo
0:1
Oct 12, 2024 Carioca B1
Perolas Negras vs Sao Goncalo
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Goncalo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Perolas Negras Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Goncalo 77 / 100
Perolas Negras 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Goncalo Perolas Negras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Goncalo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Perolas Negras conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Sao Goncalo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Sao Goncalo scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Goncalo VS Perolas Negras
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Goncalo

(Home)
12 Aug
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 0
Sao Goncalo
05 Aug
Sao Goncalo
0 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
20 Jul
Volta Redonda
0 : 0
Sao Goncalo
16 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1
Volta Redonda
04 Jul
Sao Goncalo
2 : 1
Audax RJ
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Perolas Negras

(Away)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
27 Jun
Cabofriense
1 : 2
Perolas Negras
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Americano 11 8 1 2 18:9 25
2 Marica 11 7 3 1 11:7 24
3 Resende 11 5 4 2 16:9 19
4 America RJ 11 5 1 5 18:14 16
5 Perolas Negras 11 5 1 5 11:15 16
6 Sao Goncalo 11 4 2 5 11:10 14
7 Bonsucesso 11 4 2 5 10:11 14
8 Olaria 11 3 4 4 11:11 13
9 Cabofriense 11 3 3 5 12:13 12
10 CEAC/Araruama 11 3 2 6 11:15 11
11 Serrano FC 11 2 5 4 10:18 11
12 Audax RJ 11 3 0 8 10:17 9
Promotion - Carioca 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B1 (Main)