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Sao Jose EC vs Agua Santa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Alan Stence

AI Match Summary

Sao Jose EC in this Paulista A2 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Jose EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Sao Jose EC
35%
Draws
28%
Agua Santa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Sao Jose EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Sao Jose EC have won more games recently than Agua Santa.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Paulista A2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 68%
Agua Santa Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Jose EC Agua Santa
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.45 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Agua Santa
1:0
Jun 22, 2024 Serie D
Sao Jose EC vs Agua Santa
0:0
May 25, 2024 Serie D
Agua Santa vs Sao Jose EC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Jose EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Alan Stence
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Agua Santa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Jose EC 41 / 100
Agua Santa 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Jose EC Agua Santa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Jose EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Jose EC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Sao Jose EC scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Agua Santa has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sao Jose EC VS Agua Santa
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Jose EC

(Home)
03 Oct
Sao Jose EC
1 : 0
Noroeste
27 Sept
Noroeste
1 : 1
Sao Jose EC
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 6

Agua Santa

(Away)
27 Jun
Agua Santa
1 : 2
Velo Clube
20 Jun
Velo Clube
0 : 0
Agua Santa
06 Jun
America RJ
1 : 0
Agua Santa
30 May
Agua Santa
4 : 1
Madureira
23 May
Agua Santa
2 : 0
Pouso Alegre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Agua Santa 15 10 1 4 24:14 31
2 Ferroviaria 15 8 4 3 22:12 28
3 Ituano 15 8 4 3 22:14 28
4 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 21:13 27
5 Sertaozinho 15 7 4 4 19:19 25
6 Votuporanguense 15 7 3 5 16:17 24
7 Juventus-SP 15 6 5 4 22:20 23
8 Piracicaba 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
9 Osasco Sporting 15 5 7 3 22:18 22
10 Santo Andre 15 5 3 7 16:22 18
11 Taubate 15 3 8 4 22:23 17
12 Internacional de Limeira 15 4 4 7 15:18 16
13 Linense 15 2 7 6 12:18 13
14 Monte Azul 15 2 6 7 17:22 12
15 Gremio Prudente 15 1 9 5 12:16 12
16 Sao Bento 15 1 2 12 8:25 5
Promotion - Paulista A2 (Second stage)
Relegation - Paulista A3 (Main)