Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sao Jose EC vs Comercial

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista Estadio Martins Pereira, Sao Jose dos Campos
Sao Jose EC Logo

Sao Jose EC

3 - 0
FT
Comercial Logo

Comercial

Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Felipe M.
7' Event
Wesley Rodrigues
35'
Wesley Rodrigues
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sao Jose EC
30%
Draws
19%
Comercial
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Jose EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sao Jose EC come out ahead of Comercial on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Sao Jose EC's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Sao Jose EC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sao Jose EC, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Sao Jose EC Clean Sheet 68%
Comercial Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Jose EC Comercial
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 12
Draws 5 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.35 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.87 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Copa Paulista
Sao Jose EC vs Comercial
3:0
Sep 13, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Sao Jose EC
0:0
Sep 13, 2025 Copa Paulista
Sao Jose EC vs Comercial
0:1
Sep 7, 2025 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Sao Jose EC
1:0
Feb 17, 2024 Paulista A2
Sao Jose EC vs Comercial
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Jose EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Wesley Rodrigues
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santos Oliveira L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Comercial Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Jose EC 95 / 100
Comercial 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Jose EC Comercial

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Jose EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Sao Jose EC stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Sao Jose EC scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Comercial has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sao Jose EC VS Comercial
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Jose EC

(Home)
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
22 Aug
Sao Jose EC
0 : 0
Sao Caetano
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
08 Aug
Sao Jose EC
2 : 0
Santo Andre
Page 1 of 7

Comercial

(Away)
19 Sept
Sao Jose EC
3 : 0
Comercial
13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0
Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Linense -
TBD -
Paulista 2
Gremio Prudente 7
Juventus-SP -
TBD -
Bandeirante 3
Uniao Sao Joao 4
Sao Jose EC -
TBD -
EC Sao Bernardo 2
Comercial 3
Noroeste -
TBD -
Primavera EC 12
Sao Caetano 0
Quarter-finals
Linense 3
Gremio Prudente 4
Juventus-SP 1
Uniao Sao Joao 2
Sao Jose EC 3
Comercial 0
Noroeste 3
Primavera EC 2
Semi-finals
Gremio Prudente 0
Uniao Sao Joao 0
Sao Jose EC 1
Noroeste 1
Final
TBD -
TBD -