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Sao Luiz vs Novo Hamburgo Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estádio 19 de Outubro, Ijuí
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Josue
7'
Higor
39'
Araujo

AI Match Summary

Sao Luiz in this Gaucho matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sao Luiz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sao Luiz
20%
Draws
40%
Novo Hamburgo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Novo Hamburgo lately — more wins on the board than Sao Luiz.
  • Win probability leans Sao Luiz's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 15%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Sao Luiz Clean Sheet 20%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Luiz Novo Hamburgo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 11 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz
1:1
Mar 2, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs Novo Hamburgo
1:0
Jan 21, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs Novo Hamburgo
1:0
Feb 3, 2024 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz
1:0
Feb 2, 2023 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs Novo Hamburgo
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Luiz 36 / 100
Novo Hamburgo 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Luiz Novo Hamburgo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Luiz scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Novo Hamburgo has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Sao Luiz went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sao Luiz VS Novo Hamburgo
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Luiz

(Home)
26 Jul
CSA
2 : 1
Sao Luiz
19 Jul
Sao Luiz
0 : 0
CSA
12 Jul
Sao Luiz
3 : 1
Velo Clube
04 Jul
Velo Clube
2 : 1
Sao Luiz
27 Jun
Blumenau
1 : 2
Sao Luiz
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Novo Hamburgo

(Away)
06 Mar
Novo Hamburgo
1 : 1
Sao Luiz
02 Mar
Sao Luiz
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
22 Feb
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 2
Novo Hamburgo
14 Feb
Novo Hamburgo
3 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
07 Feb
Gremio
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Internacional 6 5 0 1 14:5 15
2 EC Juventude 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
3 EC Sao Jose (PA) 6 2 3 1 4:3 9
4 Sao Luiz 6 1 4 1 6:10 7
5 Avenida 6 1 2 3 4:9 5
6 Guarany de Bage 6 1 2 3 4:10 5
Promotion - Gaucho (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gremio 6 3 1 2 14:6 10
2 SER Caxias do Sul 6 2 1 3 8:5 7
3 Ypiranga FC 6 1 4 1 7:9 7
4 Novo Hamburgo 6 1 3 2 5:5 6
5 Monsoon 6 1 3 2 5:11 6
6 Inter Santa Maria 6 1 2 3 1:4 5
Promotion - Gaucho (Play Offs)