Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sao Luiz vs SER Caxias do Sul

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estádio 19 de Outubro
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sao Luiz play SER Caxias do Sul in the Gaucho. It looks like a close match. Recently, Sao Luiz averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. SER Caxias do Sul averaged 1 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. In past meetings, Sao Luiz won 1, SER Caxias do Sul won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 21, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Sao Luiz and 0.88 for SER Caxias do Sul. This points to a SER Caxias do Sul double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Sao Luiz
33%
Draws
37%
SER Caxias do Sul
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: SER Caxias do Sul

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Sao Luiz picked up more points recently compared to SER Caxias do Sul.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Sao Luiz Clean Sheet 25%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Luiz SER Caxias do Sul
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 11
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Luiz
0:2
Feb 16, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:2
Jan 11, 2026 Gaucho
Sao Luiz vs SER Caxias do Sul
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Luiz
1:0
Jan 27, 2024 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Sao Luiz
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Luiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Victor Jesus
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Top Goalscorer Calyson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Luiz 32 / 100
SER Caxias do Sul 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Luiz SER Caxias do Sul

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: SER Caxias do Sul or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +23.2%
3.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Sao Luiz attacking → ← attacking SER Caxias do Sul

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Luiz scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

SER Caxias do Sul let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Sao Luiz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

SER Caxias do Sul lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 41
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75