Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SAO Mateus vs Rio Branco ES

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SAO Mateus in this Campeonato Capixaba 2016 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored SAO Mateus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
SAO Mateus
15%
Draws
65%
Rio Branco ES
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rio Branco ES

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • SAO Mateus haven't matched Rio Branco ES's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Rio Branco ES a 65% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
SAO Mateus Clean Sheet 20%
Rio Branco ES Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SAO Mateus Rio Branco ES
Matches Played 32 41
Wins 6 16
Draws 4 10
Losses 22 15
Goals Scored 0.72 1.37
Goals Conceded 2.31 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2021 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs SAO Mateus
3:0
Feb 1, 2020 Capixaba
SAO Mateus vs Rio Branco ES
1:0
Apr 6, 2017 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs SAO Mateus
2:1
Mar 12, 2016 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs SAO Mateus
2:0
Feb 20, 2016 Capixaba
SAO Mateus vs Rio Branco ES
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SAO Mateus 10 / 100
Rio Branco ES 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SAO Mateus Rio Branco ES

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rio Branco ES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rio Branco ES has conceded goals in 66% of their last 41 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

SAO Mateus scored in 50% of their last 32 games.

Recent resilience: SAO Mateus stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Rio Branco ES
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SAO Mateus

(Home)
26 Oct
CTE Colatina
0 : 3
SAO Mateus
19 Oct
SAO Mateus
0 : 6
Linhares Futebol Clube
16 Oct
Pinheiros
5 : 0
SAO Mateus
03 Oct
SAO Mateus
0 : 6
Vilavelhense
28 Sept
SAO Mateus
1 : 5
CTE Colatina
Page 1 of 7

Rio Branco ES

(Away)
27 Jun
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Rio Branco ES
21 Jun
Rio Branco ES
0 : 2
Uberlandia
14 Jun
Rio Branco ES
4 : 0
Porto-BA
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
03 Jun
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 4
Rio Branco ES
Page 1 of 9

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rio Branco ES 8 5 2 1 10:5 17
2 Real Noroeste 8 4 3 1 7:4 15
3 Linhares Futebol Clube 8 4 0 4 7:8 12
4 SAO Mateus 8 2 1 5 5:8 7
5 Sport-ES 8 1 2 5 5:9 5
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2016 (Second stage)
Relegation - Campeonato Capixaba 2016 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Desportiva Ferroviaria 8 5 3 0 10:3 18
2 Galatas 8 3 3 2 6:2 12
3 CA Itapemirim 8 2 4 2 5:4 10
4 Estrela do Norte 8 2 2 4 4:7 8
5 Doze Futebol Clube 8 1 2 5 1:10 5
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2016 (Second stage)
Relegation - Campeonato Capixaba 2016 (Relegation Group)