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Sao Paulo vs Coritiba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo Logo

Sao Paulo

1 - 1
FT
Coritiba Logo

Coritiba

Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Tiago Coser
20'
Sub
Tinga In: Joao Pedro Chermont
Out: Tinga
41'
Pablo Maia
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Sao Paulo
20%
Draws
40%
Coritiba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Coritiba average 1.14 goals a game right now, well clear of Sao Paulo's 1.03.
  • Model gives Sao Paulo a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 68%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sao Paulo Coritiba
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 9 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
1:1
Feb 25, 2026 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo
0:1
Sep 27, 2023 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
2:1
Apr 29, 2023 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Sao Paulo
1:1
Oct 20, 2022 Serie A Betano
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sao Paulo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pablo Maia
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Coritiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiago Coser
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sao Paulo 86 / 100
Coritiba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sao Paulo Coritiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Paulo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sao Paulo scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Coritiba's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Difficult form: Coritiba registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sao Paulo VS Coritiba
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sao Paulo

(Home)
08 Oct
Cruzeiro
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
02 Oct
Sao Paulo
1 : 2
Santos
20 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 0
Internacional
16 Sept
Sao Paulo
1 : 1
Boca Juniors
12 Sept
Palmeiras
2 : 0
Sao Paulo
Page 1 of 6

Coritiba

(Away)
09 Oct
Fluminense
4 : 0
Coritiba
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
31 Aug
Remo
2 : 3
Coritiba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 29 18 7 4 57:25 61
2 Palmeiras 29 17 9 3 48:21 60
3 Fluminense 29 14 9 6 48:36 51
4 Athletico-PR 29 14 8 7 45:34 50
5 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 44:40 48
6 Bahia 29 12 10 7 43:36 46
7 Atletico-MG 29 12 8 9 39:34 44
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 45:43 42
9 Coritiba 29 10 8 11 37:47 38
10 Bragantino 29 10 7 12 34:33 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 33:34 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 32:42 36
13 Botafogo RJ 29 9 8 12 42:47 35
14 Vasco 28 9 7 12 36:42 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 34:43 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 30:34 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 32:37 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 31:39 30
19 Remo 29 5 9 15 33:48 24
20 Chapecoense-SC 28 3 9 16 29:57 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)