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Saprissa vs Cartagines

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá, San José
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Match Events

58'
Mesen D.
58'
Sub
Loria M. In: Rodriguez A.
Out: Loria M.
58'
Sub
Madrigal W. In: Torres G.
Out: Madrigal W.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Saprissa advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Saprissa
33%
Draws
40%
Cartagines
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cartagines

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Saprissa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Cartagines a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Saprissa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Saprissa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Saprissa Clean Sheet 22%
Cartagines Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saprissa Cartagines
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 21 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 1.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Primera Division
Cartagines vs Saprissa
2:1
Jan 26, 2026 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Cartagines
0:0
Dec 14, 2025 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Cartagines
2:1
Dec 12, 2025 Primera Division
Cartagines vs Saprissa
1:2
Sep 28, 2025 Primera Division
Saprissa vs Cartagines
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Saprissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Sinclair O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Cartagines Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saprissa 29 / 100
Cartagines 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saprissa Cartagines

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CSC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saprissa found the back of the net in 91% of recent matches (32 games).

Cartagines has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Saprissa stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Saprissa VS Cartagines
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Saprissa

(Home)
25 Jul
Saprissa
5 : 1
Zeledon
18 Jul
Herediano
1 : 0
Saprissa
17 May
Herediano
2 : 0
Saprissa
14 May
Saprissa
2 : 1
Herediano
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
Page 1 of 7

Cartagines

(Away)
25 Jul
Cartagines
3 : 1
Inter San Carlos
10 May
Herediano
0 : 0
Cartagines
03 May
Cartagines
0 : 1
Herediano
26 Apr
Guadalupe
0 : 5
Cartagines
22 Apr
Cartagines
2 : 1
San Carlos
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Alajuelense4
Liberia1
Saprissa4
Cartagines2
Final
Alajuelense5
Saprissa3