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Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC

USA USA

USL Cup Premier Sports Campus
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Valentine R.
16' Event
Tunbridge M.
(Penalty)
18'
Sub
Rogers A. In: Calfo A.
Out: Rogers A.

AI Match Summary

The USL Cup game between Sarasota Paradise and Miami FC finished 0-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Miami FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Sarasota Paradise
39%
Draws
31%
Miami FC
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Sarasota Paradise carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 20%
Miami FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarasota Paradise Miami FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 3 7
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2025 USL Cup
Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC
3-2
Apr 12, 2025 USL Cup
Miami FC vs Sarasota Paradise
0-0
Mar 12, 2025 USL Cup
Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC
3-1
Feb 12, 2025 USL Cup
Miami FC vs Sarasota Paradise
3-0
Jan 12, 2025 USL Cup
Sarasota Paradise vs Miami FC
3-2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarasota Paradise Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Miami FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rocha A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarasota Paradise 31 / 100
Miami FC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarasota Paradise Miami FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Sarasota Paradise found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Miami FC conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Sarasota Paradise has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sarasota Paradise VS Miami FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Spokane Velocity43016:69
2Sacramento Republic33007:18
3Athletic Club Boise32017:65
4Oakland Roots41034:64
5Monterey Bay31026:73
6Las Vegas Lights30031:51
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Colorado Springs33007:19
2El Paso Locomotive32015:36
3New Mexico32016:56
4AV Alta FC31023:53
5Phoenix Rising31022:63
6Orange County SC30033:60
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1San Antonio FC33004:18
2Birmingham Legion32015:26
3One Knoxville32014:34
4FC Tulsa31023:44
5Corpus Christi FC31021:43
6Chattanooga Red Wolves30032:52
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Louisville City33009:28
2Indy Eleven43017:47
3Lexington32016:46
4Union Omaha32017:86
5Detroit City31022:35
6Fort Wayne30035:101
7Forward Madison30032:70
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hartford Athletic32016:27
2Brooklyn FC32018:36
3Rhode Island32015:25
4Portland Hearts of Pine31025:94
5New York Cosmos31024:93
6Westchester SC31025:82
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Charleston33007:18
2Charlotte Independence33005:28
3Pittsburgh Riverhounds31024:35
4Loudoun United31024:53
5Greenville Triumph31023:53
6Richmond Kickers30031:80
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tampa Bay33008:19
2Miami FC32016:56
3Sporting Jax41033:54
4Sarasota Paradise31022:43
5FC Naples31023:72