Sport Picks
Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL League One Premier Sports Campus, Lakewood Ranch, FL 
Match Events
7'
7'
Romero J.
17'
17'
Marou S.
Assist: Bakero J.
24'
24'
Roed S.
Assist: Bryant E.
AI Match Summary
Charlotte Independence in this USL League One matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Charlotte Independence.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
35%
38%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Charlotte Independence
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
27%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Charlotte Independence lately — more wins on the board than Sarasota Paradise.
- Win probability leans Sarasota Paradise's way, sitting at 70%.
- Regular USL League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Sarasota Paradise Clean Sheet 12%
Charlotte Independence Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sarasota Paradise | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 21 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.44 | 2.3 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 USL League One
Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence
2:3
Aug 15, 2026 USL League One
Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sarasota Paradise Compare
Top Goalscorer Roed S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Bolanos J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Charlotte Independence Compare
Top Goalscorer Marou S.
2 Goals Assists Leader Stefano Pinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sarasota Paradise 65 / 100
Charlotte Independence 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sarasota Paradise Charlotte Independence
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sarasota Paradise Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Charlotte Independence let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.
Sarasota Paradise's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
Sarasota Paradise went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Sarasota Paradise VS Charlotte Independence
2.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Sarasota Paradise
(Home) 03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
26 Sept
Portland Hearts of Pine
1 : 4 Sarasota Paradise
19 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
6 : 0 Greenville Triumph
12 Sept
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Sarasota Paradise
05 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
1 : 1 Spokane Velocity
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
19 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
6 : 0 Greenville Triumph
05 Sept
Sarasota Paradise
1 : 1 Spokane Velocity
19 Aug
Sarasota Paradise
3 : 2 Chattanooga Red Wolves
29 Jul
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 2 Portland Hearts of Pine
Page 1 of 3
Charlotte Independence
(Away) 03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
26 Sept
Charlotte Independence
1 : 1 Fort Wayne
19 Sept
Richmond Kickers
1 : 2 Charlotte Independence
17 Sept
Athletic Club Boise
1 : 1 Charlotte Independence
12 Sept
Charlotte Independence
5 : 4 Westchester SC
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 3 Charlotte Independence
19 Sept
Richmond Kickers
1 : 2 Charlotte Independence
17 Sept
Athletic Club Boise
1 : 1 Charlotte Independence
06 Sept
Union Omaha
2 : 0 Charlotte Independence
23 Aug
Forward Madison
1 : 1 Charlotte Independence
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 53:31 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 67:42 | 60 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 50:27 | 52 |
| 4 | One Knoxville | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49:34 | 51 |
| 5 | Athletic Club Boise | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 45:39 | 49 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 41:36 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 50:43 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45:37 | 42 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 29 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 34:44 | 37 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33:43 | 36 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 48:46 | 33 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 39:43 | 33 |
| 13 | AV Alta FC | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 43:53 | 31 |
| 15 | New York Cosmos | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 36:56 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 30:52 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 30:60 | 23 |
Promotion - USL League One (Play Offs)
