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Saraykoy 1926 vs Bayrampasa

Turkey Turkey

TFF 3. Lig Group 3 2016/2017
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Saraykoy 1926 averaging 1.5 xG at home and Bayrampasa producing 0.9 xG on their travels. Bayrampasa will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Saraykoy 1926 to find a way to break them down. The stats favor a low-scoring affair. Backing Under 2.5 goals looks like the smart play here. The numbers suggest backing Bayrampasa has the better value, giving them a 48% chance.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Saraykoy 1926
30%
Draws
48%
Bayrampasa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bayrampasa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Saraykoy 1926 picked up more points recently compared to Bayrampasa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 0.93 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Saraykoy 1926 Clean Sheet 24%
Bayrampasa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Saraykoy 1926 Bayrampasa
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 3 7
Draws 9 12
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 0.67 0.85
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

23.04.17 3. Lig Group 3
Bayrampasa vs Saraykoy 1926
3:1
11.12.16 3. Lig Group 3
Saraykoy 1926 vs Bayrampasa
1:1
03.02.13 2. Lig White Group
Bayrampasa vs Saraykoy 1926
1:0
16.09.12 2. Lig White Group
Saraykoy 1926 vs Bayrampasa
2:3

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Saraykoy 1926

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Bayrampasa

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Saraykoy 1926 Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.95

Bayrampasa Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
7 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
5 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.68

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Bayrampasa • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Saraykoy 1926 • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Bayrampasa • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Saraykoy 1926 • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Saraykoy 1926 25 / 100
Bayrampasa 45 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Saraykoy 1926 Bayrampasa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bayrampasa or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +57.1%
7.14
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +24%
4.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Saraykoy 1926 will likely press early to force mistakes.

Saraykoy 1926 59%
Bayrampasa 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Bayrampasa should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Saraykoy 1926 54%
Bayrampasa 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Saraykoy 1926 51%
Bayrampasa 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Saraykoy 1926 to push more players wide.

Saraykoy 1926 56%
Bayrampasa 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Saraykoy 1926 51%
Bayrampasa 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Saraykoy 1926 62%
Bayrampasa 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Saraykoy 1926 attacking → ← attacking Bayrampasa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Saraykoy 1926 have scored in 93% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Bayrampasa concede most goals (45%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 24 shots per game, well above the league median.

Saraykoy 1926 are unbeaten in 4 straight matches when scoring first.

Bayrampasa have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 7 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Saraykoy 1926 wants a European spot, while Bayrampasa is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 33
1.54 Goals expected (xG) 0.93
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2