Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sardor Tursunzoda vs Istiqlol Dushanbe

Tajikistan Tajikistan

Vysshaya Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Istiqlol Dushanbe in this Vysshaya Liga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Istiqlol Dushanbe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Sardor Tursunzoda
20%
Draws
51%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Istiqlol Dushanbe lately — more wins on the board than Sardor Tursunzoda.
  • Model gives Istiqlol Dushanbe a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Vysshaya Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Sardor Tursunzoda Clean Sheet 16%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sardor Tursunzoda Istiqlol Dushanbe
Matches Played 18 32
Wins 3 21
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.5 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.83 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Sardor Tursunzoda vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
0:1
Mar 7, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Sardor Tursunzoda
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sardor Tursunzoda 23 / 100
Istiqlol Dushanbe 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sardor Tursunzoda Istiqlol Dushanbe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sardor Tursunzoda scored in 67% of their last 18 outings.

Solid form: Sardor Tursunzoda remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Istiqlol Dushanbe let in goals in 59% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 0.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Sardor Tursunzoda VS Istiqlol Dushanbe
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sardor Tursunzoda

(Home)
16 Sept
Barkchi Hisor
2 : 0
Sardor Tursunzoda
11 Sept
Sardor Tursunzoda
3 : 3
Vakhsh
14 Aug
Sardor Tursunzoda
3 : 3
Khosilot Parkhar
31 Jul
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
2 : 4
Sardor Tursunzoda
28 Jun
Sardor Tursunzoda
0 : 1
Istiqlol Dushanbe
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Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Away)
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0
Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1
Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Istiqlol Dushanbe 17 11 4 2 23:6 37
2 Regar-TadAZ 17 11 4 2 23:9 37
3 Khosilot Parkhar 17 10 4 3 34:17 34
4 Barkchi Hisor 16 7 3 6 24:23 24
5 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe 16 7 3 6 18:20 24
6 Khujand 16 6 6 4 15:11 24
7 Ravshan Kulob 17 6 4 7 23:19 22
8 Vakhsh 17 4 8 5 24:24 20
9 Eskhata 17 5 4 8 22:32 19
10 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov 17 4 3 10 15:32 15
11 Sardor Tursunzoda 16 2 5 9 23:31 11
12 Istaravshan 17 0 6 11 15:35 6
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)