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Sarnese vs Atletico Uri - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Lagzir S.
21' Event
Fall A.
28' Event
Fall A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G 2024/2025 game between Sarnese and Atletico Uri finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sarnese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Sarnese
20%
Draws
0%
Atletico Uri
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sarnese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Atletico Uri haven't matched Sarnese's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Sarnese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 20%
Atletico Uri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarnese Atletico Uri
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 6
Draws 12 9
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.52 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Sarnese vs Atletico Uri
4:2
Oct 13, 2024 Serie D - Group G
Atletico Uri vs Sarnese
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Fall A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Lagzir S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Atletico Uri Compare

Top Goalscorer Fiorelli L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarnese 85 / 100
Atletico Uri 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarnese Atletico Uri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sarnese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sarnese found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Sarnese has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Atletico Uri's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sarnese VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarnese

(Home)
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2
Sarnese
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
Page 1 of 7

Atletico Uri

(Away)
04 May
Atl. Lodigiani
3 : 1
Atletico Uri
27 Apr
Atletico Uri
1 : 2
Olbia
17 Apr
Paganese
1 : 0
Atletico Uri
13 Apr
Atletico Uri
1 : 2
Real Monterotondo
06 Apr
Trastevere Calcio
3 : 1
Atletico Uri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guidonia 1937 34 20 9 5 59:25 69
2 Gelbison 34 18 10 6 57:37 64
3 Sarnese 34 18 8 8 54:37 62
4 Cassino 34 15 13 6 40:25 58
5 A.C. Savoia 34 16 9 9 45:33 57
6 Paganese 34 15 11 8 41:28 56
7 Cynthialbalonga 34 15 6 13 49:42 51
8 Puteolana Internapoli 34 13 11 10 48:42 50
9 Trastevere Calcio 34 12 8 14 52:55 44
10 Olbia 34 11 9 14 46:50 42
11 Latte Dolce 34 11 8 15 52:57 41
12 Anzio Calcio 1924 34 10 10 14 39:57 40
13 Atl. Lodigiani 34 9 11 14 39:49 38
14 Real Monterotondo 34 10 8 16 34:39 38
15 Ilvamaddalena 34 10 8 16 39:41 38
16 Sarrabus Ogliastra 34 8 9 17 35:56 33
17 Atletico Uri 34 6 11 17 33:53 29
18 Terracina 34 5 9 20 27:63 24
Promotion - Serie D - Group G 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G 2024/2025 (Play Out)