Sport Picks
Match Events
57'
57'
Felleca F.
73'
73'
Urain E.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group H game between Sarnese and Manfredonia finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
30%
34%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sarnese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Manfredonia come out ahead of Sarnese on wins alone.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on Sarnese taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 20%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sarnese | Manfredonia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 10 |
| Draws | 13 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Manfredonia
1:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Sarnese
4:2
Feb 25, 2018 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Sarnese
4:5
Oct 22, 2017 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Manfredonia
1:1
Mar 29, 2015 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Sarnese
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sarnese Compare
Top Goalscorer Felleca F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88
Manfredonia Compare
Top Goalscorer Urain E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sarnese 36 / 100
Manfredonia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sarnese Manfredonia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 4.20 goals.
Sarnese's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 31 recent games.
Sarnese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Manfredonia has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sarnese VS Manfredonia
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sarnese
(Home) 30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0 Sarnese
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1 Pompei
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2 Sarnese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2 Francavilla
19 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1 Sarnese
Page 1 of 7
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1 Pompei
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2 Francavilla
12 Apr
Sarnese
0 : 0 A.C.D. Nardo
28 Mar
Sarnese
1 : 0 SS Nola 1925
15 Mar
Sarnese
2 : 0 Gravina
Page 1 of 3
Manfredonia
(Away) 03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2 Manfredonia
26 Apr
Manfredonia
0 : 0 Fidelis Andria
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0 Manfredonia
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0 SS Nola 1925
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1 Manfredonia
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2 Manfredonia
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0 Manfredonia
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1 Manfredonia
22 Mar
Citta di Fasano
2 : 1 Manfredonia
01 Mar
Real Normanna
1 : 0 Manfredonia
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barletta | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 54:20 | 70 |
| 2 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47:30 | 62 |
| 3 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Paganese | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 36:32 | 58 |
| 5 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40:27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50:40 | 55 |
| 7 | Afragolese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45:46 | 49 |
| 8 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Normanna | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 27:26 | 43 |
| 11 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39:38 | 43 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34:39 | 43 |
| 13 | Sarnese | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 51:49 | 41 |
| 14 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:50 | 41 |
| 15 | Heraclea | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 31:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pompei | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 26:38 | 34 |
| 17 | Ferrandina | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21:43 | 30 |
| 18 | Acerrana | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 20:74 | 14 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)
