Sport Picks
Match Events
57'
57'
Felleca F.
73'
73'
Urain E.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Sarnese and Manfredonia finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sarnese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sarnese come out ahead of Manfredonia on wins alone.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 68%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sarnese | Manfredonia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 9 |
| Draws | 12 | 10 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.04 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 1.04 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Manfredonia
1:1
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Sarnese
4:2
Feb 25, 2018 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Sarnese
4:5
Oct 22, 2017 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Manfredonia
1:1
Mar 29, 2015 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Sarnese
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sarnese Compare
Top Goalscorer Felleca F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Manfredonia Compare
Top Goalscorer Urain E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sarnese 41 / 100
Manfredonia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sarnese Manfredonia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sarnese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sarnese scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.
Manfredonia let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.
Sarnese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Sarnese VS Manfredonia
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Sarnese
(Home) 20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1 Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1 Sarnese
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1 Budoni Calcio
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0 Sarnese
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1 Budoni Calcio
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1 Pompei
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2 Francavilla
12 Apr
Sarnese
0 : 0 A.C.D. Nardo
Page 1 of 3
Manfredonia
(Away) 20 Sept
Manfredonia
3 : 0 Ebolitana
16 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 1 Manfredonia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2 Nocerina
06 Sept
San Felice Gladiator
2 : 1 Manfredonia
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2 Manfredonia
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 1 Manfredonia
06 Sept
San Felice Gladiator
2 : 1 Manfredonia
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2 Manfredonia
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0 Manfredonia
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1 Manfredonia
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barletta | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 54:20 | 70 |
| 2 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47:30 | 62 |
| 3 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Paganese | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 36:32 | 58 |
| 5 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40:27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50:40 | 55 |
| 7 | Afragolese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45:46 | 49 |
| 8 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Normanna | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 27:26 | 43 |
| 11 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39:38 | 43 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34:39 | 43 |
| 13 | Sarnese | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 51:49 | 41 |
| 14 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:50 | 41 |
| 15 | Heraclea | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 31:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pompei | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 26:38 | 34 |
| 17 | Ferrandina | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21:43 | 30 |
| 18 | Acerrana | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 20:74 | 14 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)
