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Sarnese vs Paganese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Maggio D.
39' Event
Akammadu F.
48' Event
Marquez F.

AI Match Summary

Sarnese in this Serie D - Group G matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sarnese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sarnese
30%
Draws
19%
Paganese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sarnese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Paganese have won more games recently than Sarnese.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 68%
Paganese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarnese Paganese
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 11 16
Draws 12 5
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.48 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Sarnese vs Paganese
2:1
Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Paganese
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Paganese vs Sarnese
2:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Sarnese vs Paganese
1:0
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Sarnese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Maggio D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marquez F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer Akammadu F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarnese 41 / 100
Paganese 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarnese Paganese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sarnese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sarnese found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Recent resilience: Sarnese stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Paganese has conceded goals in 63% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Sarnese VS Paganese
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarnese

(Home)
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2
Sarnese
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
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Paganese

(Away)
07 Oct
Paganese
1 : 2
Real Normanna
04 Oct
Sarnese
2 : 1
Paganese
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 6 4 2 0 11:6 14
2 Monastir 6 4 1 1 17:9 13
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 6 4 0 2 10:4 12
4 Unipomezia 6 3 2 1 11:6 11
5 Ossese 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
6 Trastevere Calcio 6 3 2 1 8:10 11
7 Paganese 6 3 1 2 14:9 10
8 Anzio Calcio 1924 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Albalonga 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
10 Gelbison 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
11 Budoni Calcio 6 2 1 3 10:13 7
12 Citta di Anagni 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
13 Aranova 6 1 3 2 6:7 6
14 Afragolese 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Latte Dolce 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
17 US Venafro 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
18 Atl. Lodigiani 6 0 1 5 8:17 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)