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Sarnese vs Pompei

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

59' Event
Foggia C.
61' Event
Galdean M.
76' Event
Felleca F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Sarnese advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Sarnese
20%
Draws
56%
Pompei
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pompei

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Sarnese's 1.47 goals per match outpaces what Pompei have produced (0.87).
  • Win probability leans Pompei's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Sarnese, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 18%
Pompei Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarnese Pompei
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 13 4
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.47 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Pompei
2:1
Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Pompei vs Sarnese
0:0
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Pompei
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Foggia C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Felleca F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Pompei Compare

Top Goalscorer Galdean M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarnese 28 / 100
Pompei 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarnese Pompei

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pompei Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pompei has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Sarnese's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Sarnese stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Sarnese VS Pompei
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarnese

(Home)
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0
Sarnese
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1
Pompei
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2
Sarnese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Sarnese
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Pompei

(Away)
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1
Pompei
03 May
Fidelis Andria
1 : 2
Pompei
26 Apr
Pompei
4 : 1
Virtus Francavilla
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Sarnese 2
Pompei 1
SS Nola 1925 1
Heraclea 1