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Sarnese vs SS Nola 1925

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Addessi S.
62'
Barone A.

AI Match Summary

Sarnese in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sarnese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Sarnese
35%
Draws
32%
SS Nola 1925
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • SS Nola 1925 have won more games recently than Sarnese.
  • Sarnese are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 68%
SS Nola 1925 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarnese SS Nola 1925
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 13 7
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.47 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs SS Nola 1925
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group H
SS Nola 1925 vs Sarnese
3:3
May 12, 2019 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs SS Nola 1925
1:3
Mar 31, 2019 Serie D - Group H
SS Nola 1925 vs Sarnese
0:1
Nov 25, 2018 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs SS Nola 1925
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Addessi S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

SS Nola 1925 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarnese 77 / 100
SS Nola 1925 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarnese SS Nola 1925

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sarnese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SS Nola 1925 conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Sarnese scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Sarnese stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sarnese VS SS Nola 1925
1.63 Goals Scored 0.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarnese

(Home)
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0
Sarnese
10 May
Sarnese
2 : 1
Pompei
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2
Sarnese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Sarnese
Page 1 of 6

SS Nola 1925

(Away)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
SS Nola 1925
2 : 1
Martina Calcio
26 Apr
Paganese
5 : 0
SS Nola 1925
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0
SS Nola 1925
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)