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Sarriana vs Gran Pena - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Rodriguez A.
45' Event
Vilarino J.
48' Event
Dominguez N. A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 game between Sarriana and Gran Pena finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sarriana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Sarriana
15%
Draws
37%
Gran Pena
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sarriana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gran Pena come out ahead of Sarriana on wins alone.
  • Model gives Sarriana a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Sarriana Clean Sheet 13%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarriana Gran Pena
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.24 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Sarriana vs Gran Pena
3:2
Feb 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Sarriana
1:3
Oct 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Sarriana vs Gran Pena
1:3
May 26, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Sarriana
4:1
May 18, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Sarriana vs Gran Pena
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarriana Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vilarino J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Dominguez N. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ubeira A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarriana 35 / 100
Gran Pena 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarriana Gran Pena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Sarriana found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Gran Pena's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Sarriana went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sarriana VS Gran Pena
1.5 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarriana

(Home)
04 Oct
Somozas
2 : 1
Sarriana
26 Sept
Sarriana
3 : 2
Gran Pena
20 Sept
Alondras
2 : 0
Sarriana
13 Sept
Sarriana
2 : 0
Viveiro
06 Sept
Estradense
1 : 3
Sarriana
Page 1 of 6

Gran Pena

(Away)
04 Oct
Gran Pena
3 : 2
Atletico Arteixo
26 Sept
Sarriana
3 : 2
Gran Pena
20 Sept
Gran Pena
0 : 0
Antela
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Boiro 5 3 1 1 10:6 10
2 Barco 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
3 Lalin 5 3 1 1 5:3 10
4 Antela 5 3 1 1 5:4 10
5 Sarriana 5 3 0 2 9:7 9
6 Racing Club Villalbes 5 2 3 0 7:5 9
7 Alondras 5 3 0 2 10:9 9
8 Pontevedra B 5 2 1 2 9:6 7
9 Portonovo SD 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Gran Pena 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
11 Estradense 5 2 1 2 8:9 7
12 Celtiga 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Somozas 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
14 Atletico Arteixo 5 1 2 2 6:8 5
15 Silva SD 5 1 2 2 5:8 5
16 Viveiro 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
17 Arenteiro 5 1 0 4 4:7 3
18 Montaneros 5 1 0 4 7:11 3
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 (Play Offs)