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Sarriana vs UD Samano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Diaz I.
38' Event
Gonzalez E.
48' Event
Vilan D.

AI Match Summary

Sarriana in this Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sarriana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Sarriana
20%
Draws
38%
UD Samano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sarriana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sarriana lately — more wins on the board than UD Samano.
  • 38% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Sarriana Clean Sheet 18%
UD Samano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sarriana UD Samano
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 3
Draws 6 5
Losses 13 21
Goals Scored 1.24 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.17 2.66
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Sarriana vs UD Samano
4:0
Sep 27, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
UD Samano vs Sarriana
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sarriana Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gonzalez E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

UD Samano Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sarriana 32 / 100
UD Samano 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sarriana UD Samano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Samano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UD Samano has conceded goals in 97% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Sarriana's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Sarriana went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sarriana VS UD Samano
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Sarriana

(Home)
04 Oct
Somozas
2 : 1
Sarriana
26 Sept
Sarriana
3 : 2
Gran Pena
20 Sept
Alondras
2 : 0
Sarriana
13 Sept
Sarriana
2 : 0
Viveiro
06 Sept
Estradense
1 : 3
Sarriana
Page 1 of 6

UD Samano

(Away)
03 Oct
Atletico Mineros
0 : 4
UD Samano
27 Sept
Cayon CD
1 : 1
UD Samano
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
13 Sept
Vimenor
2 : 1
UD Samano
05 Sept
UD Samano
2 : 2
CD Barquereno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Fabril 34 20 9 5 59:22 69
2 Real Oviedo B 34 16 10 8 50:35 58
3 Numancia 34 15 11 8 46:31 56
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 40:34 55
5 Coruxo FC 34 15 7 12 46:37 52
6 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 14 9 11 37:36 51
7 Real Avila 34 14 8 12 48:52 50
8 Salamanca CF UDS 34 14 8 12 43:36 50
9 Rayo Cantabria 34 11 15 8 63:50 48
10 Bergantinos 34 13 9 12 44:37 48
11 Atletico Astorga 34 12 9 13 41:43 45
12 Marino De Luanco 34 11 12 11 31:26 45
13 Valladolid Promesas 34 12 9 13 59:58 45
14 Langreo 34 11 10 13 35:41 43
15 Sarriana 34 11 7 16 42:42 40
16 Burgos CF B 34 8 12 14 38:55 36
17 Lealtad 34 7 7 20 31:54 28
18 UD Samano 34 3 6 25 23:87 15
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)