Sport Picks
Match Events
28'
28'
Tomassini S.
33'
33'
Miori M.
88'
88'
Lucas Luzzi
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Savignanese advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
35%
45%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Matelica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Matelica come out ahead of Savignanese on wins alone.
- 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Matelica arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Matelica, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Matelica have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Savignanese Clean Sheet 18%
Matelica Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Savignanese | Matelica |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 21 | 30 |
| Wins | 4 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 25, 2019 Coppa Italia Serie D
Savignanese vs Matelica
2:1
Apr 18, 2019 Serie D - Group F
Matelica vs Savignanese
4:2
Dec 12, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Savignanese vs Matelica
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Savignanese Compare
Top Goalscorer Miori M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lucas Luzzi
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58
Matelica Compare
Top Goalscorer Tomassini S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Savignanese 32 / 100
Matelica 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Savignanese Matelica
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Matelica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.33 goals per match.
Savignanese found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (21 games).
Matelica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.
Recent resilience: Savignanese stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Matelica
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Savignanese
(Home) 23 Feb
Savignanese
1 : 1 Sammaurese
16 Feb
Desenzano Calvina
3 : 0 Savignanese
09 Feb
Savignanese
1 : 0 Breno
02 Feb
Ciliverghe Mazzano
3 : 2 Savignanese
26 Jan
Savignanese
0 : 0 Franciacorta
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23 Feb
Savignanese
1 : 1 Sammaurese
09 Feb
Savignanese
1 : 0 Breno
26 Jan
Savignanese
0 : 0 Franciacorta
05 Jan
Savignanese
0 : 3 Correggese
22 Dec
Savignanese
0 : 1 Crema
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Matelica
(Away) 26 May
Renate
1 : 1 Matelica
23 May
Matelica
1 : 1 Renate
19 May
Cesena
2 : 3 Matelica
09 May
Matelica
3 : 1 Sambenedettese
02 May
Matelica
3 : 0 Imolese
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26 May
Renate
1 : 1 Matelica
19 May
Cesena
2 : 3 Matelica
25 Apr
Perugia
2 : 0 Matelica
11 Apr
Carpi
4 : 1 Matelica
27 Mar
Gubbio
3 : 0 Matelica
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Mantova 3
Ciliverghe Mazzano 4
Folgore Caratese 2
Caravaggio 0
Seregno Calcio 4
Casale 1
Crema 1
Fanfulla 0
Montebelluna 2
Union Feltre 3
Villafranca 2
Virtus Bolzano 1
Chions 0
Campodarsego 3
Mestre 0
Adriese 1
Grassina 2
Scandicci 1
San Donato Tavarnelle 2
Monterosi 1
Seravezza Pozzi 2
Grosseto 1
FC Ponsacco 4
Tuttocuoio 2
Pro Sesto 1
Inveruno 2
Brusaporto 2
Villa Valle 1
AC Chieri 3
Ligorna 0
Sanremese 1
Savona 0
Avezzano 0
Pineto 1
Trastevere Calcio 0
Ostiamare 1
Lanusei Calcio 0
Sassari Torres 2
Aprilia 1
Vis Artena 0
US Tolentino 3
Cannara 1
Sangiustese 1
Montegiorgio 2
Mezzolara 1
Vigor Carpaneto 0
Savignanese 2
Matelica 1
Roma City 1
Portici 1906 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Fidelis Andria 0
Francavilla 0
Citta di Fasano 2
Taranto 2
Audace Cerignola 0
FC Messina 2
Cittanovese 0
Marsala 0
AS Acireale 2
Foggia 3
Vastogirardi 1
Turris 2
Sorrento 1
1/16-finals
Ciliverghe Mazzano 1
Folgore Caratese 2
Seregno Calcio 2
Crema 1
Union Feltre 2
Villafranca 0
Campodarsego 2
Adriese 1
Grassina 1
San Donato Tavarnelle 3
Seravezza Pozzi 2
FC Ponsacco 0
Inveruno 3
Brusaporto 2
AC Chieri 0
Sanremese 3
Pineto 1
Ostiamare 0
Sassari Torres 3
Aprilia 0
US Tolentino 2
Montegiorgio 0
Mezzolara 2
Savignanese 1
Portici 1906 0
A.C. Savoia 2
Citta di Fasano 3
Taranto 2
FC Messina 0
AS Acireale 2
Foggia 3
Turris 1
1/8-finals
Folgore Caratese 3
Seregno Calcio 2
Union Feltre 3
Campodarsego 0
San Donato Tavarnelle 2
Seravezza Pozzi 3
Inveruno 2
Sanremese 3
Pineto 4
Sassari Torres 3
US Tolentino 4
Mezzolara 2
A.C. Savoia 0
Citta di Fasano 1
AS Acireale 0
Foggia 3
Quarter-finals
Folgore Caratese 2
Union Feltre 1
Seravezza Pozzi 1
Sanremese 2
Pineto 1
US Tolentino 2
Citta di Fasano 2
Foggia 1
Semi-finals
Folgore Caratese 6
Sanremese 0
US Tolentino 1
Citta di Fasano 5
Final
Folgore Caratese -
Citta di Fasano -
