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SB Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Nuno Andre
(Penalty)
36' Event
65' Event
Monteiro G.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between SB Castelo Branco and Naval 1893 finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Naval 1893.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
SB Castelo Branco
15%
Draws
51%
Naval 1893
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Naval 1893

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Naval 1893 haven't matched SB Castelo Branco's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Naval 1893's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Naval 1893 here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
SB Castelo Branco Clean Sheet 13%
Naval 1893 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SB Castelo Branco Naval 1893
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 17 15
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.65 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893
1:4
Jan 17, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Naval 1893 vs SB Castelo Branco
1:0
Aug 17, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SB Castelo Branco vs Naval 1893
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SB Castelo Branco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Naval 1893 Compare

Top Goalscorer Monteiro G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martinez C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SB Castelo Branco 19 / 100
Naval 1893 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SB Castelo Branco Naval 1893

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Naval 1893 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SB Castelo Branco scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Naval 1893 let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: SB Castelo Branco stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SB Castelo Branco VS Naval 1893
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SB Castelo Branco

(Home)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
16 Aug
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 3
SB Castelo Branco
Page 1 of 7

Naval 1893

(Away)
19 Sept
Naval 1893
0 : 2
FC Felgueiras
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Oliveira Hospital
1 : 0
Naval 1893
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3
Naval 1893
23 Aug
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 4
Naval 1893
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 O Elvas CAD 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
4 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
5 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Alverca B 4 1 0 3 6:4 3
12 Sertanense 4 0 2 2 3:7 2
13 Fazendense 4 0 1 3 5:12 1
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)