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SC Lusitania vs GD Peniche - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
SC Lusitania Logo

SC Lusitania

1 - 1
FT
GD Peniche Logo

GD Peniche

Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Ribeiro F.
78' Event
Goncalves V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 game between SC Lusitania and GD Peniche finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
SC Lusitania
15%
Draws
64%
GD Peniche
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: GD Peniche

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • SC Lusitania haven't matched GD Peniche's recent run of results.
  • 64% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 10%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Lusitania GD Peniche
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 19 14
Goals Scored 0.93 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SC Lusitania
5:1
Dec 21, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs GD Peniche
1:1
Mar 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs SC Lusitania
1:4
Nov 19, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs GD Peniche
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Lusitania Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

GD Peniche Compare

Top Goalscorer Goncalves V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Lusitania 30 / 100
GD Peniche 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Lusitania GD Peniche

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GD Peniche Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: SC Lusitania scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: GD Peniche conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Away concern: GD Peniche has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SC Lusitania VS GD Peniche
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

SC Lusitania

(Home)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1
SC Lusitania
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
Page 1 of 6

GD Peniche

(Away)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)