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SC Lusitania vs Mortagua FC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Camara S.

AI Match Summary

Mortagua FC in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mortagua FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
SC Lusitania
22%
Draws
60%
Mortagua FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Mortagua FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Mortagua FC have won more games recently than SC Lusitania.
  • Model gives Mortagua FC a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 17%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Lusitania Mortagua FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 14
Draws 6 6
Losses 19 10
Goals Scored 0.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 2.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs Mortagua FC
0:1
Oct 12, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs SC Lusitania
0:2
Mar 24, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs Mortagua FC
2:3
Dec 10, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs SC Lusitania
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Lusitania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Mortagua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Camara S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Lusitania 20 / 100
Mortagua FC 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Lusitania Mortagua FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SC Lusitania's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Mortagua FC conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Mortagua FC's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

SC Lusitania VS Mortagua FC
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SC Lusitania

(Home)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1
SC Lusitania
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
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Mortagua FC

(Away)
18 Apr
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Electrico FC
12 Apr
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Mortagua FC
04 Apr
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Os Marialvas
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Naval 1893
2 : 0
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria Sernache26167333:1255
2Oliveira Hospital26148439:1350
3Naval 189326146636:2348
4SB Castelo Branco26144843:2646
5Uniao Da Serra26128638:2744
6Mortagua FC26116923:2639
7Os Marialvas261061033:2836
8Fatima26881027:2932
9Lajense26881037:3732
10GD Peniche26861234:4330
11Samora Correia26851327:3529
12Marinhense26591220:3824
13Electrico FC26541733:6219
14SC Lusitania26451724:4817
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)