Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Sagamihara Gion Stadium

Tochigi SC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

SC Sagamihara play Tochigi SC in the J2/J3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, SC Sagamihara averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Tochigi SC averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, SC Sagamihara won 4, Tochigi SC won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for SC Sagamihara and 1.69 for Tochigi SC. This points to a SC Sagamihara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%

SC Sagamihara

15%

Draws

32%

Tochigi SC

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SC Sagamihara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

SC Sagamihara picked up more points recently compared to Tochigi SC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 60%

Over 3.5 Goals 36%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

SC Sagamihara Clean Sheet 13%

Tochigi SC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	SC Sagamihara	Tochigi SC
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	15	11
Draws	2	2
Losses	13	17
Goals Scored	1.67	1.27
Goals Conceded	1.7	1.4
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 J2/J3 League

Tochigi SC vs SC Sagamihara

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Mar 8, 2026 J2/J3 League

SC Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 53% - 44% Cards: 2 - 4

4:0

Jul 20, 2025 J3 League

Tochigi SC vs SC Sagamihara

Possession: 40% - 57% Cards: 0 - 2

1:2

Feb 22, 2025 J3 League

SC Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 44% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

1:0

Aug 9, 2021 J2 League

SC Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 40% - 59% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Sagamihara Compare

Top Goalscorer Sugimoto R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Yamauchi R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Tochigi SC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Sagamihara 50 / 100

Tochigi SC 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

SC Sagamihara Tochigi SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SC Sagamihara Win (1)

Secondary Pick SC Sagamihara & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.7%

2.22

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

SC Sagamihara attacking → ← attacking Tochigi SC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SC Sagamihara scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Tochigi SC let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

SC Sagamihara went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tochigi SC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 35

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15