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SC Sao Paulo vs Riograndense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho 3
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Marcelo
38' Event
Nathan
66' Event
Nathan

AI Match Summary

SC Sao Paulo in this Gaucho 3 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored SC Sao Paulo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
SC Sao Paulo
15%
Draws
37%
Riograndense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SC Sao Paulo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Riograndense have won more games recently than SC Sao Paulo.
  • SC Sao Paulo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
SC Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 19%
Riograndense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SC Sao Paulo Riograndense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.26 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2026 Gaucho 3
SC Sao Paulo vs Riograndense
3:1
Oct 26, 2025 Gaucho 3
Riograndense vs SC Sao Paulo
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Gaucho 3
SC Sao Paulo vs Riograndense
0:0
Oct 13, 2024 Gaucho 3
Riograndense vs SC Sao Paulo
4:1
Oct 7, 2024 Gaucho 3
SC Sao Paulo vs Riograndense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SC Sao Paulo Compare

Top Goalscorer Nathan
2 Goals
Assists Leader Marcelo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Riograndense Compare

Top Goalscorer Samuel Jeferson
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SC Sao Paulo 85 / 100
Riograndense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SC Sao Paulo Riograndense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SC Sao Paulo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: SC Sao Paulo scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Riograndense conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: SC Sao Paulo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SC Sao Paulo VS Riograndense
1.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SC Sao Paulo

(Home)
30 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
3 : 1
Riograndense
27 Sept
Panambi
1 : 0
SC Sao Paulo
20 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
2 : 1
Farroupilha
13 Sept
SC Rio Grande
0 : 2
SC Sao Paulo
06 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
1 : 2
Cruz Alta
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Riograndense

(Away)
30 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
3 : 1
Riograndense
27 Sept
Riograndense
2 : 1
SC Rio Grande
19 Sept
Futvida
0 : 0
Riograndense
12 Sept
Real SC
3 : 0
Riograndense
05 Sept
Riograndense
3 : 0
EC Novo Horizonte
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panambi 6 5 1 0 12:3 16
2 Real SC 5 4 1 0 20:1 13
3 SC Sao Paulo 6 4 0 2 11:6 12
4 Cruz Alta 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
5 Futvida 6 2 4 0 6:3 10
6 Riograndense 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
7 Farroupilha 5 2 0 3 5:10 6
8 Clube 1992 6 1 0 5 7:11 3
9 EC Novo Horizonte 5 1 0 4 3:18 3
10 SC Rio Grande 5 0 0 5 2:14 0
Promotion - Gaucho 3 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Gaucho 3 (Play Offs)