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SCD Progresso vs Corticella

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Matta G.
29' Event
Matta R.
73' Event
Ferraresi S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D 2024/2025 game between SCD Progresso and Corticella finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SCD Progresso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
SCD Progresso
30%
Draws
19%
Corticella
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: SCD Progresso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SCD Progresso come out ahead of Corticella on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans SCD Progresso's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • SCD Progresso have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 68%
Corticella Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SCD Progresso Corticella
Matches Played 38 31
Wins 13 9
Draws 10 6
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 1.13 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Corticella
4:0
Nov 3, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs SCD Progresso
2:0
Mar 28, 2024 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Corticella
2:0
Nov 19, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Corticella vs SCD Progresso
0:2
Apr 14, 2021 Serie D - Group D
SCD Progresso vs Corticella
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SCD Progresso Compare

Top Goalscorer Matta G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matta R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Corticella Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SCD Progresso 95 / 100
Corticella 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SCD Progresso Corticella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCD Progresso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Corticella's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

SCD Progresso went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

SCD Progresso's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 38 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

SCD Progresso VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SCD Progresso

(Home)
03 May
SCD Progresso
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
26 Apr
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
SCD Progresso
19 Apr
Lentigione
1 : 2
SCD Progresso
12 Apr
SCD Progresso
1 : 1
Correggese
02 Apr
Tuttocuoio
0 : 2
SCD Progresso
Page 1 of 8

Corticella

(Away)
18 May
Corticella
0 : 2
Sammaurese
11 May
Corticella
4 : 1
Sasso Marconi
27 Apr
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Corticella
17 Apr
Corticella
0 : 3
Prato
13 Apr
Tuttocuoio
1 : 1
Corticella
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Forli FC 34 27 3 4 75:24 84
2 Ravenna 34 23 5 6 65:27 74
3 Lentigione 34 18 11 5 48:27 65
4 Tau 34 18 9 7 54:27 63
5 Pistoiese 34 18 7 9 45:23 61
6 Imolese 34 14 11 9 52:44 53
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 34 13 8 13 48:40 47
8 Piacenza 34 10 12 12 38:40 42
9 Prato 34 11 9 14 34:38 42
10 Tuttocuoio 34 10 12 12 32:43 42
11 SCD Progresso 34 10 11 13 24:32 41
12 San Marino Calcio 34 10 8 16 38:51 38
13 Sasso Marconi 34 9 10 15 39:51 37
14 Corticella 34 10 6 18 37:65 36
15 Sammaurese 34 7 10 17 27:37 31
16 Fiorenzuola 34 7 5 22 21:46 26
17 Zenith Prato 34 10 8 16 36:51 23
18 United Riccione 34 5 7 22 22:69 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D 2024/2025 (Play Out)