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SCD Progresso vs Ternana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SCD Progresso host Ternana in the Serie D - Group E. Little to choose between these two on current form. Ternana have shipped 1.32 goals a game lately, while SCD Progresso have conceded 1.41 and scored 1.06. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 0.75 vs 1.81, favoring Ternana. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
SCD Progresso
20%
Draws
80%
Ternana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ternana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Ternana at 1.54 per game, SCD Progresso at 1.06.
  • Win probability leans Ternana's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 11%
Ternana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SCD Progresso Ternana
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.06 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SCD Progresso 10 / 100
Ternana 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SCD Progresso Ternana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ternana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ternana let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: SCD Progresso scored in 59% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

SCD Progresso VS Ternana
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

SCD Progresso

(Home)
18 Oct
Grassina
1 : 0
SCD Progresso
11 Oct
SCD Progresso
0 : 1
Siena
04 Oct
Rondinella
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
Page 1 of 7

Ternana

(Away)
21 Oct
Ternana
5 : 1
Recanatese
18 Oct
Ternana
2 : 1
Siena
11 Oct
Lucchese
2 : 2
Ternana
04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1
Montevarchi
27 Sept
Scandicci
0 : 0
Ternana
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Prato 8 5 3 0 12:5 18
2 Follonica Gavorrano 8 4 4 0 11:5 16
3 Seravezza Pozzi 8 4 2 2 15:5 14
4 Lucchese 8 4 2 2 18:15 14
5 Siena 8 4 1 3 15:10 13
6 Tau 8 4 1 3 11:14 13
7 Ternana 8 3 3 2 13:8 12
8 Scandicci 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
9 Terranuova Traiana 8 3 3 2 13:10 12
10 Flaminia 8 3 3 2 10:11 12
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 8 3 2 3 9:10 11
12 Montevarchi 8 3 1 4 12:12 10
13 Mezzolara 8 1 6 1 7:9 9
14 Rondinella 8 2 3 3 6:10 9
15 Sasso Marconi 8 2 2 4 10:13 8
16 Grassina 8 1 3 4 8:14 6
17 SCD Progresso 8 1 0 7 4:17 3
18 Ghiviborgo 8 0 2 6 6:16 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)