Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SCM Dunarea Giurgiu vs Progresul Mogosoaia

Romania Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 5
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SCM Dunarea Giurgiu host Progresul Mogosoaia in the Liga 3 - Seria 5. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. SCM Dunarea Giurgiu have averaged 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded recently, against Progresul Mogosoaia's 1.38 scored and 1.55 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.69) point toward Progresul Mogosoaia. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
30%
Draws
27%
Progresul Mogosoaia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: SCM Dunarea Giurgiu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Progresul Mogosoaia come out ahead of SCM Dunarea Giurgiu on wins alone.
  • Model gives SCM Dunarea Giurgiu a 43% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 - Seria 5 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu Clean Sheet 13%
Progresul Mogosoaia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SCM Dunarea Giurgiu Progresul Mogosoaia
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 4 2
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.3 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SCM Dunarea Giurgiu 66 / 100
Progresul Mogosoaia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu Progresul Mogosoaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCM Dunarea Giurgiu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SCM Dunarea Giurgiu has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

SCM Dunarea Giurgiu found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (27 games).

Progresul Mogosoaia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Progresul Mogosoaia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

SCM Dunarea Giurgiu VS Progresul Mogosoaia
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

SCM Dunarea Giurgiu

(Home)
23 Sept
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
1 : 0
Progresul Spartac
18 Sept
CSM Alexandria
2 : 2
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
12 Sept
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
2 : 2
Oxigen Bucuresti
04 Sept
LPS HD Clinceni
1 : 3
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
29 Aug
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
2 : 0
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
Page 1 of 6

Progresul Mogosoaia

(Away)
23 Sept
Omega Sport
1 : 0
Progresul Mogosoaia
19 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
0 : 3
Din. Bucuresti 2
12 Sept
Progresul Spartac
1 : 2
Progresul Mogosoaia
04 Sept
Progresul Mogosoaia
1 : 0
Voluntari 2
28 Aug
CSM Alexandria
2 : 2
Progresul Mogosoaia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 LPS HD Clinceni 6 4 1 1 16:9 13
2 Omega Sport 5 4 1 0 6:2 13
3 SCM Dunarea Giurgiu 5 3 2 0 10:5 11
4 CSM Alexandria 6 3 2 1 10:6 11
5 Adunatii-Copaceni 6 3 0 3 4:5 9
6 Din. Bucuresti 2 6 3 0 3 7:10 9
7 Cetatea Turnu Magurele 5 2 1 2 14:6 7
8 Progresul Mogosoaia 5 2 1 2 5:7 7
9 Voluntari 2 6 1 1 4 6:9 4
10 Oxigen Bucuresti 6 1 1 4 7:13 4
11 Progresul Spartac 5 1 0 4 6:6 3
12 FCSB 2 5 1 0 4 5:18 3
Promotion - Liga 3 - Promotion Group 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Liga 3 - Seria 5 (Relegation Group)