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Scotland vs Greece

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Hampden Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Scotland play Greece in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Scotland averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Greece averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Scotland won 3, Greece won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 15, 2025 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Scotland and 1.25 for Greece. This points to a Greece double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Scotland
15%
Draws
45%
Greece
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Greece

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Scotland picked up more points recently compared to Greece.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%
Scotland Clean Sheet 19%
Greece Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Scotland Greece
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 4 4
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.37 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 World Championship
Greece vs Scotland
3:2
Oct 9, 2025 World Championship
Scotland vs Greece
3:1
Mar 23, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Scotland vs Greece
0:3
Mar 20, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Greece vs Scotland
0:1
Aug 15, 1995 Euro
Scotland vs Greece
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Scotland Compare

Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Greece Compare

Top Goalscorer Konstantelias G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karetsas K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Scotland 40 / 100
Greece 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Scotland Greece

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Greece or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Scotland attacking → ← attacking Greece

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Scotland scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Greece let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Scotland went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Greece lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 49
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63