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Scunthorpe vs Southend

England England

National League 2025/2026 Attis Arena, Scunthorpe
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Roberts C.
Assist: Whitehall D.
32'
Horton B.
36'
Taylor H.

AI Match Summary

Scunthorpe in this National League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Scunthorpe
20%
Draws
46%
Southend
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Southend

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Southend lately — more wins on the board than Scunthorpe.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Southend arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Scunthorpe, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Scunthorpe Clean Sheet 10%
Southend Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Scunthorpe Southend
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 15 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.81 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 National League
Southend vs Scunthorpe
1:0
Apr 28, 2026 National League
Scunthorpe vs Southend
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 National League
Scunthorpe vs Southend
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 National League
Southend vs Scunthorpe
0:2
Apr 22, 2023 National League
Scunthorpe vs Southend
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Scunthorpe Compare

Top Goalscorer Roberts C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Southend Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Scunthorpe 34 / 100
Southend 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Scunthorpe Southend

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Southend Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Scunthorpe's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Southend has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Scunthorpe remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Scunthorpe VS Southend
1.75 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Scunthorpe

(Home)
16 Sept
Scunthorpe
1 : 2
Boreham Wood
12 Sept
Sutton
0 : 2
Scunthorpe
08 Sept
Scunthorpe
2 : 1
Nottingham U21
05 Sept
Scunthorpe
0 : 2
Harrogate
31 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 2
Scunthorpe
Page 1 of 7

Southend

(Away)
15 Sept
Southend
3 : 1
Tamworth
12 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 2
Southend
05 Sept
Southend
3 : 2
Yeovil
31 Aug
Woking
1 : 1
Southend
28 Aug
Southend
1 : 3
Kidderminster
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rochdale -
TBD -
Scunthorpe 1
Southend 0
Carlisle -
TBD -
Boreham Wood 1
Forest Green 0
Semi-finals
Rochdale 2
Scunthorpe 1
Carlisle 1
Boreham Wood 2
Final
Rochdale 3
Boreham Wood 2