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SD Ibiza vs Arenal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

SD Ibiza host Arenal in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. SD Ibiza have averaged 1.32 scored and 1.21 conceded recently, against Arenal's 0.93 scored and 1.79 conceded. Head-to-head, SD Ibiza have won 2 to Arenal's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 3, 2024, ending 4:0. The numbers (1.48 xG vs 1.23) point toward SD Ibiza. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
SD Ibiza
15%
Draws
16%
Arenal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: SD Ibiza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and SD Ibiza come out ahead of Arenal on wins alone.
  • Model gives SD Ibiza a 69% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 11 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
SD Ibiza Clean Sheet 20%
Arenal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Ibiza Arenal
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 5
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.32 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
SD Ibiza vs Arenal
4:0
Oct 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Arenal vs SD Ibiza
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Ibiza 85 / 100
Arenal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Ibiza Arenal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SD Ibiza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

SD Ibiza has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

SD Ibiza found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

SD Ibiza VS Arenal
1.13 Goals Scored 0.83
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.83
75% Over 1.5 83%
63% Over 2.5 83%
50% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Ibiza

(Home)
04 Oct
SD Ibiza
2 : 0
Formentera
26 Sept
Andratx
0 : 0
SD Ibiza
20 Sept
SD Ibiza
1 : 0
Sineu
12 Sept
Migjorn
1 : 3
SD Ibiza
06 Sept
SD Ibiza
2 : 1
Platges de Calvia
Page 1 of 6

Arenal

(Away)
03 Oct
Llosetense
3 : 1
Arenal
26 Sept
Arenal
1 : 2
Porreres
19 Sept
Mercadal
1 : 2
Arenal
12 Sept
Arenal
1 : 2
Alcudia
05 Sept
Constancia
3 : 0
Arenal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manacor 5 5 0 0 15:5 15
2 SD Ibiza 5 4 1 0 8:2 13
3 Cardassar 5 3 1 1 10:4 10
4 Constancia 5 3 1 1 9:3 10
5 Llosetense 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
6 Platges de Calvia 5 3 0 2 9:5 9
7 Santanyi 5 2 3 0 5:3 9
8 Porreres 5 3 0 2 7:6 9
9 Formentera 5 2 2 1 7:4 8
10 PE Sant Jordi 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
11 Alcudia 5 2 0 3 10:11 6
12 Mercadal 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
13 Andratx 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
14 Binissalem 5 1 0 4 5:9 3
15 Arenal 5 1 0 4 5:11 3
16 Migjorn 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
17 Inter Ibiza 5 0 1 4 2:12 1
18 Sineu 5 0 0 5 3:14 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 11 (Play Offs)