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SD Noja vs Castro

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Cabieces E.
22' Event
Diez J. F.
53' Event
Cabieces E.

AI Match Summary

Castro in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
SD Noja
22%
Draws
60%
Castro
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Castro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • SD Noja haven't matched Castro's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Castro's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
SD Noja Clean Sheet 11%
Castro Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Noja Castro
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 4 11
Draws 5 6
Losses 21 15
Goals Scored 0.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs Castro
1:4
Oct 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs SD Noja
2:1
Jan 23, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs Castro
1:1
Sep 25, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs SD Noja
0:0
Feb 26, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs SD Noja
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SD Noja Compare

Top Goalscorer Canarte J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Castro Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabieces E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Diez J. F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Noja 18 / 100
Castro 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Noja Castro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castro has conceded goals in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Difficult form: Castro registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

SD Noja scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

SD Noja VS Castro
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Noja

(Home)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
01 May
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
6 : 0
SD Noja
26 Apr
SD Noja
0 : 1
SD Revilla
18 Apr
Guarnizo
4 : 1
SD Noja
12 Apr
SD Noja
2 : 2
CD Colindres
Page 1 of 6

Castro

(Away)
09 May
Castro
0 : 2
CD Tropezon
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
18 Apr
SD Revilla
2 : 1
Castro
12 Apr
Castro
0 : 1
Guarnizo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Gimnastic de Torrelavega34265386:1583
2CD Laredo34218563:2871
3CD Tropezon34214950:2767
4Guarnizo34199647:2666
5UM Escobedo342121165:4365
6Vimenor34178947:3659
7Atletico Albericia341751261:4556
8Cayon CD341751250:4156
9Torina341581139:4053
10Bezana341381343:3847
11Castro341081644:4738
12Selaya34881832:4432
13SD Revilla34871935:6331
14CD Barquereno34862037:6430
15UC Cartes346101828:5228
16CD Colindres346101827:4728
17CD Montanas del Pas34682035:8726
18SD Noja34472322:6819
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 (Play Offs)