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SD Sparta vs Araguaina

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Tocantinense 2019 game between SD Sparta and Araguaina finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SD Sparta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
SD Sparta
35%
Draws
30%
Araguaina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Araguaina come out ahead of SD Sparta on wins alone.
  • Araguaina are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Campeonato Tocantinense 2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and SD Sparta have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
SD Sparta Clean Sheet 20%
Araguaina Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SD Sparta Araguaina
Matches Played 33 38
Wins 14 16
Draws 7 10
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.36 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.95
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2019 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs SD Sparta
1:2
Apr 17, 2019 Tocantinense
SD Sparta vs Araguaina
1:0
Jun 2, 2018 Tocantinense
SD Sparta vs Araguaina
2:0
Apr 18, 2018 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs SD Sparta
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SD Sparta 28 / 100
Araguaina 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SD Sparta Araguaina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araguaina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Sparta found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (33 games).

Araguaina has conceded goals in 71% of their last 38 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

SD Sparta went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Araguaina
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SD Sparta

(Home)
04 Dec
Bela Vista-TO
1 : 1
SD Sparta
30 Nov
SD Sparta
0 : 1
Bela Vista-TO
23 Nov
SD Sparta
1 : 1
Araguaia (TO)
16 Nov
Araguaia (TO)
0 : 1
SD Sparta
09 Nov
Araguacema
1 : 1
SD Sparta
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Araguaina

(Away)
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
14 Jun
Araguaina
9 : 0
Galvez
30 May
Guapore
3 : 2
Araguaina
24 May
Araguaina
1 : 1
Porto Velho
Page 1 of 8

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palmas 6 4 0 2 10:7 12
2 Forca Jovem Aquidaba 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
3 Interporto 6 2 1 3 8:8 7
4 Alvorada 6 2 1 3 7:11 7
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 8 4 2 2 16:10 14
2 SD Sparta 8 4 2 2 11:9 14
3 Cerrado 8 3 3 2 9:8 12
4 Araguaina 8 1 4 3 6:9 7
5 Arsenal (TO) 8 1 3 4 14:20 6
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2019 (Play Offs)