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Seattle Reign W vs Bay FC W

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NWSL Women 2025 Lumen Field
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AI Match Summary

Seattle Reign W play Bay FC W in the NWSL Women 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Seattle Reign W averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Bay FC W averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. In past meetings, Seattle Reign W won 0, Bay FC W won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 11, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Seattle Reign W and 1.06 for Bay FC W. This points to a Seattle Reign W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Seattle Reign W
35%
Draws
26%
Bay FC W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Seattle Reign W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Seattle Reign W picked up more points recently compared to Bay FC W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 56%
Seattle Reign W Clean Sheet 22%
Bay FC W Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Seattle Reign W Bay FC W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 5
Draws 9 8
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.14 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 NWSL Women
Seattle Reign W vs Bay FC W
1:1
Apr 27, 2025 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs Seattle Reign W
1:1
Sep 29, 2024 NWSL Women
Seattle Reign W vs Bay FC W
0:1
Apr 15, 2024 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs Seattle Reign W
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Seattle Reign W Compare

Top Goalscorer Fishlock J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Bay FC W Compare

Top Goalscorer Huff T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Seattle Reign W 40 / 100
Bay FC W 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Seattle Reign W Bay FC W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Seattle Reign W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Seattle Reign W attacking → ← attacking Bay FC W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Seattle Reign W scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Bay FC W let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Seattle Reign W went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Bay FC W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 23
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Kansas City Current W26212349:1365
2Washington Spirit W26128642:3344
3Portland Thorns FC W26117836:2940
4Orlando Pride W26117833:2740
5Seattle Reign W26109732:2939
6San Diego Wave W26107941:3437
7Racing Louisville W26107935:3837
8Gotham FC W2699835:2536
9North Carolina Courage W2698937:3935
10Houston Dash W26861227:3930
11Angel City W26761331:4127
12Utah Royals W26671328:4225
13Bay FC W26481426:4120
14Chicago Stars W263111232:5420