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Semen Padang vs PSMS Medan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Indonesia Indonesia

Championship Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim, Padang
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
08:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Semen Padang host PSMS Medan in the Championship. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Semen Padang at 0.72 goals for, 1.86 against; PSMS Medan at 1.29 for, 1.21 against. Past meetings favor Semen Padang slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 22, 2024, ending 1:1. xG projections (0.94 - 1.75) back PSMS Medan to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Semen Padang
20%
Draws
47%
PSMS Medan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: PSMS Medan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • PSMS Medan have won more games recently than Semen Padang.
  • PSMS Medan are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Semen Padang Clean Sheet 12%
PSMS Medan Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Semen Padang PSMS Medan
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 6 11
Draws 5 11
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.72 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 22, 2024 Championship
PSMS Medan vs Semen Padang
1:1
Jan 17, 2024 Championship
Semen Padang vs PSMS Medan
2:0
Dec 1, 2023 Championship
PSMS Medan vs Semen Padang
1:2
Oct 9, 2023 Championship
Semen Padang vs PSMS Medan
2:2
Dec 11, 2022 Championship
Semen Padang vs PSMS Medan
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Semen Padang 11 / 100
PSMS Medan 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Semen Padang PSMS Medan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSMS Medan Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: PSMS Medan conceded in 82% of 34 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Semen Padang remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Semen Padang scored in 48% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Semen Padang VS PSMS Medan
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Semen Padang

(Home)
04 Oct
Semen Padang
0 : 1
PSPS Riau
26 Sept
PSGC Ciamis
0 : 2
Semen Padang
20 Sept
Semen Padang
1 : 1
PSIS Semarang
13 Sept
Persiraja Aceh
0 : 1
Semen Padang
23 May
Persija Jakarta
3 : 0
Semen Padang
Page 1 of 6

PSMS Medan

(Away)
03 Oct
PSMS Medan
4 : 0
Persikad Depok
27 Sept
Bekasi City
0 : 1
PSMS Medan
20 Sept
PSMS Medan
6 : 0
Persiku Kudus
13 Sept
Sumsel United
2 : 2
PSMS Medan
01 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 1
PSMS Medan
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSMS Medan 4 3 1 0 13:2 10
2 PSIS Semarang 4 3 1 0 7:2 9
3 Persikad Depok 4 3 0 1 6:7 9
4 PSPS Riau 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
5 Semen Padang 4 2 1 1 4:2 6
6 PSGC Ciamis 4 2 0 2 5:5 6
7 Sumsel United 4 1 1 2 5:7 3
8 Bekasi City 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
9 Persiraja Aceh 4 0 0 4 3:7 -1
10 Persiku Kudus 4 0 1 3 2:12 -1
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deltras Sidoarjo 4 4 0 0 12:3 12
2 Persela Lamongan 4 4 0 0 10:0 11
3 RANS Nusantara 5 3 1 1 15:9 10
4 Tornado Pekanbaru 4 2 2 0 5:2 7
5 Persipura Jayapura 5 1 2 2 7:8 4
6 PS Barito Putera 4 1 1 2 7:8 4
7 Persis Solo 4 1 1 2 8:5 4
8 Dejan 4 1 1 2 5:7 4
9 Balikpapan 4 0 0 4 2:7 -4
10 PSBS Biak Numfor 4 0 0 4 1:23 -4
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Championship (Relegation - Play Offs)