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Senegal vs Guinea

World World

Friendly International 2025 Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade, Diamniadio
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Gomis C.

AI Match Summary

Senegal in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Senegal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Senegal
30%
Draws
39%
Guinea
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guinea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Senegal lately — more wins on the board than Guinea.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Senegal taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Senegal Clean Sheet 20%
Guinea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Senegal Guinea
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 17 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.97 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 7, 2025 Friendly International
Senegal vs Guinea
1:0
Jul 4, 2025 Friendly International
Senegal vs Guinea
0:0
Jan 23, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Guinea vs Senegal
0:2
Sep 2, 2022 African Nations Championship
Guinea vs Senegal
1:1
Aug 27, 2022 African Nations Championship
Senegal vs Guinea
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Senegal Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomis C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Guinea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Senegal 42 / 100
Guinea 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Senegal Guinea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Senegal found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Guinea's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 26 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Senegal went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Senegal VS Guinea
2.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Senegal

(Home)
01 Jul
Belgium
3 : 2
Senegal
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
23 Jun
Norway
3 : 2
Senegal
16 Jun
France
3 : 1
Senegal
09 Jun
Saudi Arabia
0 : 0
Senegal
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Guinea

(Away)
04 Jun
Northern Ireland
1 : 0
Guinea
31 Mar
Guinea
0 : 1
Benin
27 Mar
Guinea
2 : 2
Togo
18 Nov
Guinea
1 : 1
Niger
15 Nov
Guinea
2 : 0
Liberia
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