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Senglea vs Santa Lucia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2024/2025 Centenary Stadium, Ta' Qali
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Meilak S.
42'
Fenech T.
44' Event
Mawuena S.

AI Match Summary

Santa Lucia in this Challenge League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santa Lucia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Senglea
35%
Draws
58%
Santa Lucia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Santa Lucia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Senglea haven't matched Santa Lucia's recent run of results.
  • Santa Lucia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Senglea Clean Sheet 20%
Santa Lucia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Senglea Santa Lucia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 3 10
Draws 6 12
Losses 21 9
Goals Scored 0.77 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2025 Challenge League
Senglea vs Santa Lucia
1:3
Apr 18, 2021 Premier League
Senglea vs Santa Lucia
0:0
Dec 14, 2020 Premier League
Santa Lucia vs Senglea
4:1
Feb 22, 2020 Premier League
Senglea vs Santa Lucia
2:5
Oct 5, 2019 Premier League
Santa Lucia vs Senglea
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Senglea Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Santa Lucia Compare

Top Goalscorer Mawuena S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Asante E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Senglea 10 / 100
Santa Lucia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Senglea Santa Lucia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Lucia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Santa Lucia conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Senglea scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Senglea stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Santa Lucia
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Senglea

(Home)
12 Apr
Sirens
2 : 1
Senglea
06 Apr
Senglea
1 : 1
Lija
30 Mar
Senglea
1 : 2
Zebbug
12 Mar
Valletta
1 : 0
Senglea
09 Mar
Fgura
2 : 0
Senglea
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Santa Lucia

(Away)
18 Sept
St. Andrews
1 : 1
Santa Lucia
12 Sept
Santa Lucia
0 : 0
Vittoriosa
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
12 Apr
Santa Lucia
3 : 0
Zurrieq
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1
Santa Lucia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valletta 15 12 2 1 29:4 38
2 Tarxien 15 9 2 4 22:16 29
3 Marsa 15 8 4 3 25:13 28
4 Swieqi 15 8 4 3 23:18 28
5 Pieta 15 8 2 5 21:19 26
6 Santa Lucia 15 8 1 6 24:25 25
7 Mgarr 15 5 7 3 24:19 22
8 Zurrieq 15 6 4 5 18:17 22
9 Fgura 15 6 3 6 17:14 21
10 Gudja 15 6 3 6 21:22 21
11 Zebbug 15 3 8 4 22:20 17
12 Sirens 15 4 5 6 25:26 17
13 Lija 15 3 3 9 16:28 12
14 St. Andrews 15 2 4 9 11:23 10
15 Senglea 15 2 3 10 13:27 9
16 Mtarfa 15 2 1 12 10:30 7
Promotion - Challenge League 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2024/2025 (Relegation Group)