Sport Picks

Bulgaria

Third League - South-West 2025/2026 National Stadium Vasil Levski

Septemvri Simitli

3 - 2

Strumska Slava

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West 2025/2026 game between Septemvri Simitli and Strumska Slava finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Simitli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Septemvri Simitli

Draws

Strumska Slava

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Septemvri Simitli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Look at the last few games and Strumska Slava come out ahead of Septemvri Simitli on wins alone.
90% — that's where the model lands on Septemvri Simitli taking it.
Regular Third League - South-West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%

Septemvri Simitli Clean Sheet 17%

Strumska Slava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Septemvri Simitli	Strumska Slava
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	17
Draws	4	5
Losses	13	8
Goals Scored	1.5	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Third League - South-West

Septemvri Simitli vs Strumska Slava

Possession: 54% - 54% Cards: 3 - 2

3:2

Oct 4, 2025 Third League - South-West

Strumska Slava vs Septemvri Simitli

Possession: 53% - 43% Cards: 3 - 1

3:2

Jan 27, 2024 Club Friendly

Strumska Slava vs Septemvri Simitli

Possession: 42% - 42% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Apr 2, 2022 Vtora liga

Strumska Slava vs Septemvri Simitli

Possession: 40% - 59% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Sep 17, 2021 Vtora liga

Septemvri Simitli vs Strumska Slava

Possession: 50% - 60% Cards: 2 - 2

1:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Septemvri Simitli 84 / 100

Strumska Slava 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Septemvri Simitli Strumska Slava

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SEP Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Strumska Slava let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Septemvri Simitli scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Septemvri Simitli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Septemvri Simitli VS Strumska Slava

1.5 Goals Scored 1.63

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25

63% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 63%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rilski Sportist	34	25	5	4	58:23	80
2	Strumska Slava	34	20	5	9	71:45	65
3	Slavia Sofia 2	34	17	6	11	68:44	57
4	Botev Ihtiman	34	14	9	11	53:40	51
5	Kyustendil	34	15	5	14	49:52	50
6	CSKA Sofia III	34	15	5	14	49:43	50
7	Oborishte Panagyurishte	34	14	7	13	43:37	49
8	Balkan Botevgrad	34	13	10	11	50:45	49
9	Septemvri Sofia 2	34	13	9	12	50:43	48
10	Septemvri Simitli	34	13	8	13	41:40	47
11	Kostinbrod	34	14	5	15	47:51	47
12	Pirin Razlog	34	13	6	15	43:48	45
13	Bansko	34	11	11	12	39:45	44
14	Slivnishki Geroy	34	11	9	14	40:49	42
15	Levski Sofia II	34	11	7	16	30:44	40
16	Gotse Delchev	34	11	4	19	43:70	37
17	Germaneya	34	4	6	24	38:75	18
18	Bistritsa	34	11	5	18	44:62	38