Sport Picks
Septemvri Simitli vs Velbazhd Kyustendil
Bulgaria
Third League - South-West 2018/2019 National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia 
AI Match Summary
Septemvri Simitli in this Third League - South-West 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Septemvri Simitli.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
80%
20%
0%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Septemvri Simitli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Septemvri Simitli have won more games recently than Velbazhd Kyustendil.
- Model gives Septemvri Simitli a 80% chance of winning this.
- Regular Third League - South-West 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Septemvri Simitli Clean Sheet 20%
Velbazhd Kyustendil Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Septemvri Simitli | Velbazhd Kyustendil |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 4 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 0.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 2.33 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.35 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 30, 2019 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Velbazhd Kyustendil
2:1
Sep 15, 2018 Third League - South-West
Velbazhd Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli
0:0
Apr 8, 2017 Third League - South-West
Velbazhd Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli
0:1
Sep 25, 2016 Third League - South-West
Septemvri Simitli vs Velbazhd Kyustendil
1:1
Mar 30, 2014 Third League - South-West
Velbazhd Kyustendil vs Septemvri Simitli
1:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Septemvri Simitli 85 / 100
Velbazhd Kyustendil 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Septemvri Simitli Velbazhd Kyustendil
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Septemvri Simitli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Away concern: Velbazhd Kyustendil has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
Septemvri Simitli scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
Velbazhd Kyustendil let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Septemvri Simitli VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Septemvri Simitli
(Home) 26 Sept
Septemvri Simitli
1 : 3 Oborishte Panagyurishte
19 Sept
Bansko
3 : 1 Septemvri Simitli
12 Sept
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 2 Minyor Pernik
05 Sept
Pirin Razlog
1 : 1 Septemvri Simitli
29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3 Natsional Sofia
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Septemvri Simitli
1 : 3 Oborishte Panagyurishte
12 Sept
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 2 Minyor Pernik
29 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
3 : 3 Natsional Sofia
15 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
0 : 0 CSKA Sofia III
01 Aug
Septemvri Simitli
2 : 0 Kostinbrod
Page 1 of 3
Velbazhd Kyustendil
(Away) 29 May
Slivnishki Geroy
6 : 1 Velbazhd Kyustendil
22 May
Velbazhd Kyustendil
1 : 2 Pirin Razlog
15 May
Botev Ihtiman
5 : 0 Velbazhd Kyustendil
12 May
Velbazhd Kyustendil
0 : 5 Belasitsa Petrich
08 May
Oborishte Panagyurishte
4 : 0 Velbazhd Kyustendil
Page 1 of 6
29 May
Slivnishki Geroy
6 : 1 Velbazhd Kyustendil
15 May
Botev Ihtiman
5 : 0 Velbazhd Kyustendil
08 May
Oborishte Panagyurishte
4 : 0 Velbazhd Kyustendil
24 Apr
Levski Chepintsi
2 : 1 Velbazhd Kyustendil
10 Apr
Bansko
1 : 0 Velbazhd Kyustendil
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebar | 34 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 73:19 | 90 |
| 2 | Oborishte Panagyurishte | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 60:27 | 75 |
| 3 | Vihren | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 52:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Bansko | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 56:37 | 58 |
| 5 | Slivnishki Geroy | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 60:35 | 57 |
| 6 | Minyor Pernik | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 57:37 | 56 |
| 7 | Pirin Razlog | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 47:35 | 49 |
| 8 | Rilski Sportist | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47:42 | 46 |
| 9 | Belasitsa Petrich | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43:37 | 44 |
| 10 | Septemvri Simitli | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 34:36 | 42 |
| 11 | Chavdar Etropole | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54:47 | 41 |
| 12 | Marek | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:37 | 41 |
| 13 | Balkan Botevgrad | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 41:57 | 38 |
| 14 | Nadezhda Dobroslavci | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:61 | 38 |
| 15 | Svoge | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 45:61 | 37 |
| 16 | Botev Ihtiman | 34 | 10 | 2 | 22 | 35:75 | 32 |
| 17 | Germaneya | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 36:70 | 30 |
| 18 | Velbazhd Kyustendil | 34 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 22:89 | 11 |
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