Sport Picks

Stadium Background

SER Caxias do Sul vs Avenida

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Estadio Francisco Stedile, Caxias do Sul
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Jeam
Assist: Roberto
46'
Sub
Tinga In: Emerson Junior
Out: Tinga
46'
Sub
Cristian Lessa In: Ranisson
Out: Cristian Lessa

AI Match Summary

The Gaucho game between SER Caxias do Sul and Avenida finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SER Caxias do Sul.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
SER Caxias do Sul
35%
Draws
35%
Avenida
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • SER Caxias do Sul carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives SER Caxias do Sul a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • SER Caxias do Sul have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 14%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
SER Caxias do Sul Clean Sheet 68%
Avenida Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric SER Caxias do Sul Avenida
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 8 14
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 0.97 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2026 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Avenida
3:0
Feb 5, 2025 Gaucho
Avenida vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:1
Feb 24, 2024 Gaucho
SER Caxias do Sul vs Avenida
2:0
Mar 11, 2023 Gaucho
Avenida vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:1
Jun 23, 2019 Serie D
Avenida vs SER Caxias do Sul
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

SER Caxias do Sul Compare

Top Goalscorer Jeam
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mauricio Ribeiro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Avenida Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

SER Caxias do Sul 46 / 100
Avenida 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
SER Caxias do Sul Avenida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SER Caxias do Sul scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Avenida has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: SER Caxias do Sul remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

SER Caxias do Sul VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

SER Caxias do Sul

(Home)
26 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 2
Botafogo PB
11 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0
Floresta EC
04 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 1
SER Caxias do Sul
30 Jun
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 1
Anapolis
21 Jun
SER Caxias do Sul
1 : 1
Maringa FC
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Avenida

(Away)
07 Mar
Avenida
0 : 0
Inter Santa Maria
28 Feb
Guarany de Bage
1 : 1
Avenida
23 Feb
Monsoon
1 : 1
Avenida
14 Feb
Avenida
1 : 1
Monsoon
09 Feb
Avenida
2 : 1
Guarany de Bage
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Internacional 6 5 0 1 14:5 15
2 EC Juventude 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
3 EC Sao Jose (PA) 6 2 3 1 4:3 9
4 Sao Luiz 6 1 4 1 6:10 7
5 Avenida 6 1 2 3 4:9 5
6 Guarany de Bage 6 1 2 3 4:10 5
Promotion - Gaucho (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gremio 6 3 1 2 14:6 10
2 SER Caxias do Sul 6 2 1 3 8:5 7
3 Ypiranga FC 6 1 4 1 7:9 7
4 Novo Hamburgo 6 1 3 2 5:5 6
5 Monsoon 6 1 3 2 5:11 6
6 Inter Santa Maria 6 1 2 3 1:4 5
Promotion - Gaucho (Play Offs)