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Serpa vs 1º Dezembro

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Marques D.
61' Event
Carreira D.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D game between Serpa and 1º Dezembro finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Serpa
35%
Draws
25%
1º Dezembro
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Serpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • 1º Dezembro haven't matched Serpa's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Serpa taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Serpa Clean Sheet 17%
1º Dezembro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serpa 1º Dezembro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 11 6
Draws 10 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.19 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs 1º Dezembro
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Marques D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

1º Dezembro Compare

Top Goalscorer Carreira D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serpa 75 / 100
1º Dezembro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serpa 1º Dezembro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serpa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

1º Dezembro has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Serpa scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Serpa stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serpa VS 1º Dezembro
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Serpa

(Home)
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1
1º Dezembro
29 Aug
Serpa
2 : 0
Grandolense
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
18 Apr
Oriental
2 : 1
Serpa
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1º Dezembro

(Away)
13 Sept
1º Dezembro
1 : 1
Amora
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1
1º Dezembro
30 Aug
1º Dezembro
0 : 1
Real SC
16 Aug
Imortal
5 : 0
1º Dezembro
02 May
1º Dezembro
2 : 1
Caldas SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sintrense 4 3 1 0 11:3 10
2 Imortal 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Serpa 3 1 2 0 5:3 5
4 Lagoa 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
5 Juv. Evora 3 1 2 0 6:5 5
6 Real SC 2 1 1 0 6:5 4
7 Amora 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
8 Portel 4 0 4 0 6:6 4
9 Vitoria Setubal 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
10 GD Alcochetense 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
11 Aljustrelense 3 0 2 1 2:6 2
12 1º Dezembro 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
13 Lajense 2 0 1 1 5:6 1
14 Santa Clara B 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)