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Serra Branca vs Atletico Cajazeirense

Brazil Brazil

Paraibano
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Victor Ferraz
46'
Sub
Gean In: Braga J.
Out: Gean
46'
Sub
Sanchez J. In: Digao
Out: Sanchez J.

AI Match Summary

Serra Branca in this Paraibano matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Serra Branca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Serra Branca
30%
Draws
23%
Atletico Cajazeirense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Serra Branca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Serra Branca have won more games recently than Atletico Cajazeirense.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Serra Branca taking it.
  • Regular Paraibano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Serra Branca Clean Sheet 68%
Atletico Cajazeirense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Branca Atletico Cajazeirense
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 11 5
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.24 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 29, 2026 Paraibano
Serra Branca vs Atletico Cajazeirense
1:0
Feb 18, 2024 Paraibano
Atletico Cajazeirense vs Serra Branca
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Branca Compare

Top Goalscorer Victor Ferraz
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Atletico Cajazeirense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Branca 95 / 100
Atletico Cajazeirense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Branca Atletico Cajazeirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Branca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 2:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra Branca found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (33 games).

Atletico Cajazeirense has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Serra Branca remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Atletico Cajazeirense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra Branca VS Atletico Cajazeirense
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Branca

(Home)
12 Jul
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Serra Branca
04 Jul
Serra Branca
0 : 1
Uberlandia
28 Jun
Juazeirense
0 : 1
Serra Branca
21 Jun
Serra Branca
2 : 0
Juazeirense
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
Page 1 of 7

Atletico Cajazeirense

(Away)
22 Feb
Atletico Cajazeirense
0 : 2
Confianca PB
14 Feb
Pombal
1 : 1
Atletico Cajazeirense
11 Feb
Atletico Cajazeirense
0 : 2
Botafogo PB
07 Feb
Sousa
2 : 1
Atletico Cajazeirense
01 Feb
Atletico Cajazeirense
1 : 0
Nacional PB
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 9 4 4 1 13:7 16
2 Campinense 9 4 3 2 14:9 15
3 Sousa 9 4 3 2 13:8 15
4 Serra Branca 9 4 2 3 11:10 14
5 Nacional PB 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Treze PB 9 4 0 5 11:11 12
7 EC de Patos 9 3 2 4 6:9 11
8 Atletico Cajazeirense 9 3 1 5 6:11 10
9 Confianca PB 9 2 2 5 12:17 8
10 Pombal 9 2 2 5 10:18 8
Promotion - Paraibano (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraibano 2 2027 (Main)