Sport Picks

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Serra Branca vs Uberlandia

Brazil Brazil

Serie D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Serra Branca play Uberlandia in the Serie D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Serra Branca averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1 conceded. Uberlandia averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, Serra Branca won 2, Uberlandia won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 12, 2025 ended 1-1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Serra Branca and 0.94 for Uberlandia. This points to a Serra Branca double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Serra Branca
33%
Draws
30%
Uberlandia
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Serra Branca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Serra Branca picked up more points recently compared to Uberlandia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Serra Branca Clean Sheet 24%
Uberlandia Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Branca Uberlandia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 9 10
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.14
Goals Conceded 1 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2025 Serie D
Serra Branca vs Uberlandia
1-1
Apr 12, 2025 Serie D
Uberlandia vs Serra Branca
1-1
Mar 12, 2025 Serie D
Serra Branca vs Uberlandia
3-1
Feb 12, 2025 Serie D
Uberlandia vs Serra Branca
1-1
Jan 12, 2025 Serie D
Serra Branca vs Uberlandia
2-1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Branca Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Uberlandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomas Bastos
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Branca 38 / 100
Uberlandia 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Branca Uberlandia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Serra Branca or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Serra Branca attacking → ← attacking Uberlandia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serra Branca scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Uberlandia let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Serra Branca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Uberlandia lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 40
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63