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Serra Macaense vs Paraty

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
62' Event
77' Event

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 game between Serra Macaense and Paraty finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Serra Macaense
22%
Draws
18%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Serra Macaense's 1.13 goals per match outpaces what Paraty have produced (1).
  • Win probability leans Serra Macaense's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Carioca B2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%
Paraty Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Macaense Paraty
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 11 5
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2025 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs Paraty
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Macaense 68 / 100
Paraty 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Macaense Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Serra Macaense scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Paraty conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Serra Macaense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra Macaense VS Paraty
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Macaense

(Home)
09 Nov
Belford Roxo
2 : 0
Serra Macaense
06 Nov
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
Macae
02 Nov
FC Rio de Janeiro
0 : 2
Serra Macaense
26 Oct
Serra Macaense
1 : 0
Goytacaz
19 Oct
Santa Cruz RJ
0 : 0
Serra Macaense
Page 1 of 6

Paraty

(Away)
09 Nov
Goytacaz
3 : 2
Paraty
06 Nov
Paraty
0 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
26 Oct
Barra Mansa
1 : 2
Paraty
20 Oct
Paraty
1 : 1
7 de Abril
12 Oct
Serra Macaense
2 : 2
Paraty
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santa Cruz RJ871014:322
2Belford Roxo851217:816
3Goytacaz851213:816
4Macae841313:513
5Serra Macaense83419:713
6Paraty82249:108
77 de Abril822411:138
8FC Rio de Janeiro81077:253
9Barra Mansa80264:182
Promotion - Carioca B2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)