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Serra Macaense vs Paraty Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Serra Macaense Logo

Serra Macaense

2 - 2
FT
Paraty Logo

Paraty

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
62' Event
77' Event
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B2 2025 game between Serra Macaense and Paraty finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Serra Macaense
15%
Draws
0%
Paraty
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Serra Macaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Serra Macaense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Serra Macaense's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Carioca B2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Serra Macaense Clean Sheet 68%
Paraty Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Macaense Paraty
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 10 5
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2025 Carioca B2
Serra Macaense vs Paraty
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra Macaense 95 / 100
Paraty 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Macaense Paraty

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serra Macaense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Paraty lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Serra Macaense found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Paraty's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Serra Macaense VS Paraty
1.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra Macaense

(Home)
01 Oct
Cardoso Moreira
2 : 3
Serra Macaense
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
20 Sept
Buzios
0 : 3
Serra Macaense
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
07 Sept
7 de Abril
2 : 2
Serra Macaense
Page 1 of 6

Paraty

(Away)
01 Oct
Buzios
3 : 2
Paraty
27 Sept
Paraty
0 : 3
Paduano EC
21 Sept
7 de Abril
1 : 0
Paraty
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Campos AA
2 : 1
Paraty
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)