Sport Picks

Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa

Serra

2 - 3

Vilavelhense

Our Tip

Match Events

Diogo

Borges

45'

Davis

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Copa Espirito Santo game between Serra and Vilavelhense finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vilavelhense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Serra

33%

Draws

40%

Vilavelhense

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Serra come out ahead of Vilavelhense on wins alone.
40% — that's where the model lands on Vilavelhense taking it.
Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%

Serra Clean Sheet 20%

Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Serra	Vilavelhense
Matches Played	32	29
Wins	16	11
Draws	3	8
Losses	13	10
Goals Scored	1.13	1
Goals Conceded	1.38	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo

Serra vs Vilavelhense

Possession: 57% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

2:3

Mar 15, 2026 Capixaba

Serra vs Vilavelhense

Possession: 55% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

1:0

Mar 7, 2026 Capixaba

Vilavelhense vs Serra

Possession: 50% - 59% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Feb 9, 2026 Capixaba

Vilavelhense vs Serra

Possession: 49% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Jun 15, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo

Vilavelhense vs Serra

Possession: 45% - 59% Cards: 0 - 2

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Diogo

1 Goals

Assists Leader Patrick

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Vilavelhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Davis

2 Goals

Assists Leader Borges

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 28 / 100

Vilavelhense 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Serra Vilavelhense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Vilavelhense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Serra stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Vilavelhense

1.13 Goals Scored 1

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13

50% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 38%

38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Porto Vitoria	7	5	1	1	14:5	16
2	Vitoria ES	7	4	1	2	16:8	13
3	Vilavelhense	7	4	1	2	10:8	13
4	Rio Branco-VN	7	4	1	2	6:4	13
5	Rio Branco ES	7	3	2	2	11:7	11
6	Sport-ES	7	2	0	5	3:13	6
7	Serra	7	1	1	5	6:10	4
8	Audax Sao Mateus	7	1	1	5	2:13	4