Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Serra vs Vilavelhense

Brazil Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, Serra
Serra Logo

Serra

2 - 3
FT
Vilavelhense Logo

Vilavelhense

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Diogo
8' Event
Borges
45' Event
Davis
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-3. The second leg ended 2-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Serra
30%
Draws
62%
Vilavelhense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Serra come out ahead of Vilavelhense on wins alone.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Vilavelhense taking it.
  • Serra have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Vilavelhense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Serra Clean Sheet 20%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Vilavelhense
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 18 11
Draws 3 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Vilavelhense
2:3
Mar 15, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:2
Feb 9, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Serra
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Diogo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Patrick
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Vilavelhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Davis
2 Goals
Assists Leader Borges
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 28 / 100
Vilavelhense 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Vilavelhense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vilavelhense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serra scored in 79% of their last 34 outings.

Vilavelhense has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Serra has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Vilavelhense
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra

(Home)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
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Vilavelhense

(Away)
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
06 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
03 Jun
Vilavelhense
1 : 0
Vitoria ES
28 May
Rio Branco ES
1 : 1
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Porto Vitoria 7 5 1 1 14:5 16
2 Vitoria ES 7 4 1 2 16:8 13
3 Vilavelhense 7 4 1 2 10:8 13
4 Rio Branco-VN 7 4 1 2 6:4 13
5 Rio Branco ES 7 3 2 2 11:7 11
6 Sport-ES 7 2 0 5 3:13 6
7 Serra 7 1 1 5 6:10 4
8 Audax Sao Mateus 7 1 1 5 2:13 4
Promotion - Copa Espirito Santo (Play Offs)