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Serra vs Vitoria ES - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa, Serra
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Gustavo Tonoli
14' Event
Dandan
16'
Paulo Henrique

AI Match Summary

Vitoria ES in this Capixaba matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria ES.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Serra
20%
Draws
70%
Vitoria ES
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vitoria ES

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Vitoria ES have won more games recently than Serra.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Capixaba form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Vitoria ES have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 57.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Serra Clean Sheet 15%
Vitoria ES Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serra Vitoria ES
Matches Played 33 38
Wins 17 18
Draws 3 11
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.52 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.09 0.92
Expected Goals (xG) 0.74 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Vitoria ES vs Serra
3:2
Feb 12, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Vitoria ES
1:2
May 25, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vitoria ES vs Serra
4:0
Jan 23, 2024 Capixaba
Vitoria ES vs Serra
3:1
Feb 12, 2023 Capixaba
Vitoria ES vs Serra
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Dandan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.37

Vitoria ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Tonoli
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gualberto
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serra 35 / 100
Vitoria ES 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serra Vitoria ES

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria ES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Serra found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (33 games).

Defensive concern: Vitoria ES conceded in 61% of 38 recent games.

Recent resilience: Serra stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serra VS Vitoria ES
0.6 Goals Scored 1.88
1.2 Goals Conceded 0.88
40% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 50%
20% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Serra

(Home)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
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Vitoria ES

(Away)
01 Jul
Vitoria ES
0 : 1
Rio Branco-VN
27 Jun
Betim FC
2 : 0
Vitoria ES
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
20 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Betim FC
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria ES 9 6 2 1 14:4 20
2 Serra 9 4 2 3 10:6 14
3 Vilavelhense 9 4 1 4 8:10 13
4 Rio Branco ES 9 3 4 2 10:6 13
5 Porto Vitoria 9 3 4 2 7:5 13
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
7 Real Noroeste 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
8 Forte 9 2 5 2 5:4 11
9 Capixaba SC 9 3 1 5 6:13 10
10 Rio Branco-VN 9 0 5 4 8:15 5
Promotion - Capixaba (Play Offs)
Relegation - Capixaba 2 2027 (Main)